Alan Porter
Professor Emeritus
Member Of:
- School of Public Policy
- Technology Policy and Assessment Center
Office Hours: none
Related Links:
Email Address: alan.porter@isye.gatech.edu
Overview
Alan Porter is Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering, and of Public Policy, at Georgia Tech, where he is Co-director of the Program in Science, Technology & Innovation Policy (STIP). He is also Director of R&D for Search Technology, Inc., Norcross, GA (producers of VantagePoint and Derwent Data Analyzer software). He is author or co-author of some 230 articles and books, including Tech Mining (Wiley, 2005) and Forecasting and Management of Technology (Wiley, 2011). Current research emphasizes “forecasting innovation pathways” for newly emerging technologies. This entails text mining of science, technology & innovation information resources to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence. Publications are available at:
http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Alan_Porter4, or
https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=ULgx1wUAAAAJ&view_op=list_works
Education:
- Ph.D., Engineering Psychology, UCLA
- B.S., Chemical Engineering, Caltech
Awards and
Distinctions:
Distinctions:
- Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET) Medal of Excellence, 2015
Interests
Research Fields:
- Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy
Issues:
- Assessment
- Emerging Technologies - Innovation
- Science and Technology
- Technology
- Technology Management and Policy
Publications
Recent Publications
Journal Articles
- Research Addressing Emerging Technological Ideas Has Greater Scientific Impact
In: Research Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2019
- Learning about Learning: Patterns of Sharing of Research Knowledge among Education, Border, and Cognitive Science Fields
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2019
- Tech mining to validate and refine a technology roadmap
In: World Patent Information [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2018
- National nanotechnology research prominence
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2018
Chapters
- Lessons from 10 years of nanotechnology bibliometric analysis
In: Nanotechnology Environmental Health and Safety: Risks, Regulation, and Management (Third Edition) [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2018
All Publications
Books
- Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways through Large Data Analytics
In: Springer
Date: 2016
- Forecasting and Management of Technology: Second Edition
Date: June 2011
Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for. Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. - Forecasting and Management of Technology
Date: 2011
- Tech Mining: Exploiting New Technologies for Competitive Advantage
Date: February 2005
© 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.Tech Mining makes exploitation of text databases meaningful to those who can gain from derived knowledge about emerging technologies. It begins with the premise that we have the information, the tools to exploit it, and the need for the resulting knowledge. The information provided puts new capabilities at the hands of technology managers. Using the material present, these managers can identify and access the most valuable technology information resources (publications, patents, etc.); search, retrieve, and clean the information on topics of interest; and lower the costs and enhance the benefits of competitive technological intelligence operations. - Tech Mining: Exploiting New Technologies for Competitive Advantage
Date: 2004
- Tech mining: exploiting new technologies for competitive advantage
Date: 2004
- Environmental Methods Review: Retooling Impact Assessment for the New Century
Date: 1998
- The Information Revolution: Current and Future Consequences
Date: 1998
- Forecasting and Management of Technology
Date: 1991
- Forecasting and management of technology
Date: 1991
- International impacts of technology
Date: 1987
- Impact assessment, from utrecht
Date: 1986
- Interdisciplinary Analysis and Research
Date: 1986
- Methods and Experiences in Impact Assessment
Date: 1986
- The Impact of Office Automation on Clerical Employment, 1985-2000 Forecasting Techniques and Plausible Futures in Banking and Insurance
Date: 1985
This book identifies and analyzes the various ways in which office automation will have an impact on the future of clerical employment in the banking and insurance industries over the period 1985-2000. - A Guidebook for Technology Assessment and Impact Analysis
Date: 1984
- Science, Technology and National Policy
Date: 1981
Journal Articles
- Research Addressing Emerging Technological Ideas Has Greater Scientific Impact
In: Research Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2019
- Learning about Learning: Patterns of Sharing of Research Knowledge among Education, Border, and Cognitive Science Fields
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2019
- National nanotechnology research prominence
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2018
- Tech mining to validate and refine a technology roadmap
In: World Patent Information [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2018
- A hybrid method to trace technology evolution pathways: A case study of 3D printing
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- A measure of knowledge flow between specific fields: Implications of interdisciplinarity for impact and funding
In: PLoS One [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- A Measure of Staying Power: Is the Persistence of Emergent Concepts More Significantly Influenced by Technical Domain or Scale?
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- Crossing borders: A citation analysis of connections between Cognitive Science and Educational Research . . . and the fields in between
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- Crossing borders: A citation analysis of connections between Cognitive Science and Educational research and the fields in between
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- Early insights on the Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI): An overlay map-based bibliometric study
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- Evolutionary trend analysis of nanogenerator research based on a novel perspective of phased bibliographic coupling
In: Nano Energy
Date: 2017
- Scientometrics for tech mining: an introduction
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- Tracking researchers and their outputs: New insights from ORCIDs
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- Tracking researchers and their outputs: New insights from ORCIDs
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- Topic analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation: Methodology with a case study focusing on big data research
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2016
© 2016 Elsevier Inc.The number and extent of current Science, Technology & Innovation topics are changing all the time, and their induced accumulative innovation, or even disruptive revolution, will heavily influence the whole of society in the near future. By addressing and predicting these changes, this paper proposes an analytic method to (1) cluster associated terms and phrases to constitute meaningful technological topics and their interactions, and (2) identify changing topical emphases. Our results are carried forward to present mechanisms that forecast prospective developments using Technology Roadmapping, combining qualitative and quantitative methodologies. An empirical case study of Awards data from the United States National Science Foundation, Division of Computer and Communication Foundation, is performed to demonstrate the proposed method. The resulting knowledge may hold interest for R&D management and science policy in practice. - A hybrid similarity measure method for patent portfolio analysis
In: Journal of Informetrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- Big Data in the Social Sciencespreprint. pdf
In: Science and Public Policy
Date: 2016
- Early social science research about big data
In: Science and Public Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- Early Social Science Research About Big Data
In: Science and Public Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- How does national scientific funding support emerging interdisciplinary research: A comparison study of Big Data research in the US and China
In: PLOS ONE [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- How Does National Scientific Funding Support Emerging Interdisciplinary Research: A Comparison Study of Big Data Research in the US and China.
In: PLoS One [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- How Multidisciplinary Are the Multidisciplinary Journals Science and Nature?
In: PLoS One [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
Interest in cross-disciplinary research knowledge interchange runs high. Review processes at funding agencies, such as the U.S. National Science Foundation, consider plans to disseminate research across disciplinary bounds. Publication in the leading multidisciplinary journals, Nature and Science, may signify the epitome of successful interdisciplinary integration of research knowledge and cross-disciplinary dissemination of findings. But how interdisciplinary are they? The journals are multidisciplinary, but do the individual articles themselves draw upon multiple fields of knowledge and does their influence span disciplines? This research compares articles in three fields (Cell Biology, Physical Chemistry, and Cognitive Science) published in a leading disciplinary journal in each field to those published in Nature and Science. We find comparable degrees of interdisciplinary integration and only modest differences in cross-disciplinary diffusion. That said, though the rate of out-of-field diffusion might be comparable, the sheer reach of Nature and Science, indicated by their potent Journal Impact Factors, means that the diffusion of knowledge therein can far exceed that of leading disciplinary journals in some fields (such as Physical Chemistry and Cognitive Science in our samples). - Nano-enabled Drug Delivery in Cancer Therapy: Literature Analysis Using the MeSH System
In: Pharmaceutical Nanotechnology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- Navigating the innovation trajectories of technology by combining specialization score analyses for publications and patents: graphene and nano-enabled drug delivery
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- Navigating the innovation trajectories of technology by combining specialization score analyses for publications and patents: graphene and nano-enabled drug delivery
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- Topical Analysis and Forecasting for Science, Technology and Innovation: Methodology and a Case Study focusing on Big Data Research
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2016
- A systematic method to create search strategies for emerging technologies based on the Web of Science: illustrated for ‘Big Data’
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2015
© 2015, Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary.Bibliometric and “tech mining” studies depend on a crucial foundation—the search strategy used to retrieve relevant research publication records. Database searches for emerging technologies can be problematic in many respects, for example the rapid evolution of terminology, the use of common phraseology, or the extent of “legacy technology” terminology. Searching on such legacy terms may or may not pick up R&D pertaining to the emerging technology of interest. A challenge is to assess the relevance of legacy terminology in building an effective search model. Common-usage phraseology additionally confounds certain domains in which broader managerial, public interest, or other considerations are prominent. In contrast, searching for highly technical topics is relatively straightforward. In setting forth to analyze “Big Data,” we confront all three challenges—emerging terminology, common usage phrasing, and intersecting legacy technologies. In response, we have devised a systematic methodology to help identify research relating to Big Data. This methodology uses complementary search approaches, starting with a Boolean search model and subsequently employs contingency term sets to further refine the selection. The four search approaches considered are: (1) core lexical query, (2) expanded lexical query, (3) specialized journal search, and (4) cited reference analysis. Of special note here is the use of a “Hit-Ratio” that helps distinguish Big Data elements from less relevant legacy technology terms. We believe that such a systematic search development positions us to do meaningful analyses of Big Data research patterns, connections, and trajectories. Moreover, we suggest that such a systematic search approach can help formulate more replicable searches with high recall and satisfactory precision for other emerging technology studies. - Identification of technology development trends based on subject-action-object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: September 2015
© 2015 Elsevier Inc.Identification of technology development trends is essential for supporting decision makers in forecasting and identifying related innovation activities and industrial growth. Different from the traditional technology development trends based on keyword-based quantitative methods, which usually predict trends by finding key technologies without showing how to develop them, our method allows the identification of future direction and industry goal for the technology domain and shows detailed paths for achieving them. Thus, our method has constructed technology roadmapping (TRM) with seven layers (material, technology, influencing factor, component, product, goal, and future direction) on the basis of subject-action-object analysis. The detailed paths for developing this as a trend can be shown by the interaction among these TRM elements. In addition, the method also sets three indicators as a discriminating standard to find key players that can support the trend by engaging technological innovation scenarios. The case of a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) is exemplified to illustrate the detailed procedure of our method. The results reveal the development trends in the field of DSSCs, the detailed paths to achieve them, and key countries that support them. - Tech mining to generate indicators of future national technological competitiveness: Nano-Enhanced Drug Delivery (NEDD) in the US and China
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: August 2015
© 2014 Elsevier Inc."Global technological competitiveness" is widely acknowledged, but the challenge is to go beyond this recognition to develop empirical indicators of important transitions. These may concern particular technologies, the competitive position of particular organizations, or national/regional shifts. For decades, the US has been the world leader in biomedical technologies, with attendant implications for organizational priorities in terms of R&D location and market targeting. Recent years have seen a tremendous acceleration in Asian research in most domains, including biomedical, particularly visible in China. This paper investigates comparative patterns between the US and China in a promising emerging area of biotechnology - Nano-Enhanced Drug Delivery. It then explores indicators of, and implications for, future transitions at the national level - an approach we label "Forecasting Innovation Pathways.". - Technology roadmapping for competitive technical intelligence
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2015
© 2015 Elsevier Inc.Understanding the evolution and emergence of technology domains remains a challenge, particularly so for potentially breakthrough technologies. Though it is well recognized that emergence of new fields is complex and uncertain, to make decisions amidst such uncertainty, one needs to mobilize various sources of intelligence to identify known-knowns and known-unknowns to be able to choose appropriate strategies and policies. This competitive technical intelligence cannot rely on simple trend analyses because breakthrough technologies have little past to inform such trends, and positing the directions of evolution is challenging. Neither do qualitative tools, embracing the complexities, provide all the solutions, since transparent and repeatable techniques need to be employed to create best practices and evaluate the intelligence that comes from such exercises. In this paper, we present a hybrid roadmapping technique that draws on a number of approaches and integrates them into a multi-level approach (individual activities, industry evolutions and broader global changes) that can be applied to breakthrough technologies. We describe this approach in deeper detail through a case study on dye-sensitized solar cells. Our contribution to this special issue is to showcase the technique as part of a family of approaches that are emerging around the world to inform strategy and policy. - A systematic method to create search strategies for emerging technologies based on the Web of Science: illustrated for ‘Big Data’
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2015
- Advancing the forecasting innovation pathways approach: Hybrid and electric vehicles case
In: International Journal of Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2015
© 2015 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.The forecasting innovation pathways (FIP) approach combines empirical tech mining with expert opinion. To date, FIP has been devised for relatively immature emerging technologies. This study extends the FIP methodology to work for a more advanced and complicated technology. It does so through a case analysis of hybrid and electric vehicles (HEVs). We retain the ten-step FIP process, augmenting several steps to deal with this more complex technology and technology delivery system (TDS). In particular, it is vital to address TDS sub-systems and attendant technical and market infrastructures. The key method to explore future prospects for the technology in question is an interactive workshop. Splitting into multiple workshop sub-groups proved constructive in addressing target markets and regional variations in innovation systems and policy options. The paper derives methodological suggestions to enrich FIP to address more complex technologies regarding scoping, sub-systems analyses, and ways to systematise key operations. - Analyzing collaboration networks and developmental patterns of nano-enabled drug delivery (NEDD) for brain cancer
In: Beilstein Journal of Nanotechnology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2015
© 2015 Huang et al.The rapid development of new and emerging science & technologies (NESTs) brings unprecedented challenges, but also opportunities. In this paper, we use bibliometric and social network analyses, at country, institution, and individual levels, to explore the patterns of scientific networking for a key nano area - nano-enabled drug delivery (NEDD). NEDD has successfully been used clinically to modulate drug release and to target particular diseased tissues. The data for this research come from a global compilation of research publication information on NEDD directed at brain cancer. We derive a family of indicators that address multiple facets of research collaboration and knowledge transfer patterns. Results show that: (1) international cooperation is increasing, but networking characteristics change over time; (2) highly productive institutions also lead in influence, as measured by citation to their work, with American institutes leading; (3) research collaboration is dominated by local relationships, with interesting information available from authorship patterns that go well beyond journal impact factors. Results offer useful technical intelligence to help researchers identify potential collaborators and to help inform R&D management and science & innovation policy for such nanotechnologies. - Analyzing patent topical information to identify technology pathways and potential opportunities
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2015
© Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary 2014As a basic knowledge resource, patents play an important role in identifying technology development trends and opportunities, especially for emerging technologies. However patent mining is restricted and even incomplete, because of the obscure descriptions provided in patent text. In this paper, we conduct an empirical study to try out alternative methods with Derwent Innovation Index data. Our case study focuses on nanoenabled drug delivery (NEDD) which is a very active emerging biomedical technology, encompassing several distinct technology spaces. We explore different ways to enhance topical intelligence from patent compilations. We further analyze extracted topical terms to identify potential innovation pathways and technology opportunities in NEDD. - Mapping graphene science and development: Focused research with multiple application areas
In: Bulletin of the American Society for Information Science and Technology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2015
- Nano-enabled drug delivery systems for brain cancer and Alzheimer's disease: Research patterns and opportunities
In: Nanomedicine: Nanotechnology, Biology, and Medicine [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2015
© 2015 Elsevier Inc."Tech mining" applies bibliometric and text analytic methods to scientific literature of a target field. In this study, we compare the evolution of nano-enabled drug delivery (NEDD) systems for two different applications - viz., brain cancer (BC) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) - using this approach. In this process, we derive research intelligence from papers indexed in MEDLINE. Review by domain specialists helps understand the macro-level disease problems and pathologies to identify commonalities and differences between BC and AD. Results provide a fresh perspective on the developmental pathways for NEDD approaches that have been used in the treatment of BC and AD. Results also point toward finding future solutions to drug delivery issues that are critical to medical practitioners and pharmaceutical scientists addressing the brain. From the Clinical Editor: Drug delivery to brain cells has been very challenging due to the presence of the blood-brain barrier (BBB). Suitable and effective nano-enabled drug delivery (NEDD) system is urgently needed. In this study, the authors utilized "tech-mining" tools to describe and compare various choices of delivery system available for the diagnosis, as well as treatment, of brain cancer and Alzheimer's disease. - Special Issue on Techmining for the Management of Technology
In: International Journal of Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2015
- Patent overlay mapping: Visualizing technological distance
In: Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2014
© 2014 ASIS&T.This paper presents a new global patent map that represents all technological categories and a method to locate patent data of individual organizations and technological fields on the global map. This overlay map technique may support competitive intelligence and policy decision making. The global patent map is based on similarities in citing-to-cited relationships between categories of the International Patent Classification (IPC) of European Patent Office (EPO) patents from 2000 to 2006. This patent data set, extracted from the PATSTAT database, includes 760,000 patent records in 466 IPC-based categories. We compare the global patent maps derived from this categorization to related efforts of other global patent maps. The paper overlays the nanotechnology-related patenting activities of two companies and two different nanotechnology subfields on the global patent map. The exercise shows the potential of patent overlay maps to visualize technological areas and potentially support decision making. Furthermore, this study shows that IPC categories that are similar to one another based on citing-to-cited patterns (and thus close in the global patent map) are not necessarily in the same hierarchical IPC branch, thereby revealing new relationships between technologies that are classified as pertaining to different (and sometimes distant) subject areas in the IPC scheme. - A bibliometric study of China's science and technology policies: 1949-2010
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: August 2014
This paper uses a bibliometric analysis method to probe into the evolution of China's science and technology policies from 1949 to 2010, and the roles of core government agencies in policy-making. We obtained 4,707 Chinese S&T policies from GDIS, a Chinese public policy database provided by Tsinghua University. Co-word analysis and network analysis were applied in mapping the topics of S&T policies and collaboration among the agencies, while citation analysis was applied to assess the influence of S&T policies. Findings include: first, the focus of Chinese S&T policies is mainly on applied research and industrialization, rather than basic research; second, more and more government agencies are involved in making S&T policies, but collaboration efforts are not significantly increasing; last but not least, the influence of different S&T policies is determined by the administrative ranking of the policy-making agencies responsible for drafting those policies. © 2014 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - Analyzing patent topical information to identify technology pathways and potential opportunities
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2014
As a basic knowledge resource, patents play an important role in identifying technology development trends and opportunities, especially for emerging technologies. However patent mining is restricted and even incomplete, because of the obscure descriptions provided in patent text. In this paper, we conduct an empirical study to try out alternative methods with Derwent Innovation Index data. Our case study focuses on nano-enabled drug delivery (NEDD) which is a very active emerging biomedical technology, encompassing several distinct technology spaces. We explore different ways to enhance topical intelligence from patent compilations. We further analyze extracted topical terms to identify potential innovation pathways and technology opportunities in NEDD. © 2014 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - Triple Helix innovation in China's dye-sensitized solar cell industry: Hybrid methods with semantic TRIZ and technology roadmapping
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2014
In recent years, the Triple Helix model has identified feasible approaches to measuring relations among universities, industries, and governments. Results have been extended to different databases, regions, and perspectives. This paper explores how bibliometrics and text mining can inform Triple Helix analyses. It engages Competitive Technical Intelligence concepts and methods for studies of Newly Emerging Science & Technology (NEST) in support of technology management and policy. A semantic TRIZ approach is used to assess NEST innovation patterns by associating topics (using noun phrases to address subjects and objects) and actions (via verbs). We then classify these innovation patterns by the dominant categories of origination: Academy, Industry, or Government. We then use TRIZ tags and benchmarks to locate NEST progress using Technology Roadmapping. Triple Helix inferences can then be related to the visualized patterns. We demonstrate these analyses via a case study for dye-sensitized solar cells. © 2013 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - How to combine term clumping and technology roadmapping for newly emerging science & technology competitive intelligence: "problem & solution" pattern based semantic TRIZ tool and case study
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2014
Competitive technical intelligence addresses the landscape of both opportunities and competition for emerging technologies, as the boom of newly emerging science & technology (NEST)-characterized by a challenging combination of great uncertainty and great potential-has become a significant feature of the globalized world. We have been focusing on the construction of a "NEST Competitive Intelligence" methodology that blends bibliometric and text mining methods to explore key technological system components, current R&D emphases, and key players for a particular NEST. This paper emphasizes the semantic TRIZ approach as a useful tool to process "Term Clumping" results to retrieve "problem & solution (P&S)" patterns, and apply them to technology roadmapping. We attempt to extend our approach into NEST Competitive Intelligence studies by using both inductive and purposive bibliometric approaches. Finally, an empirical study for dye-sensitized solar cells is used to demonstrate these analyses. © 2014 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - "Term clumping" for technical intelligence: A case study on dye-sensitized solar cells
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
Tech Mining seeks to extract intelligence from Science, Technology & Innovation information record sets on a subject of interest. A key set of Tech Mining interests concerns which R&D activities are addressed in the publication and patent abstract records under study. This paper presents six "term clumping" steps that can clean and consolidate topical content in such text sources. It examines how each step changes the content, potentially to facilitate extraction of usable intelligence as the end goal. We illustrate for an emerging technology, dye-sensitized solar cells. In this case we were able to reduce some 90,980 terms & phrases to more user-friendly sets through the clumping steps as one indicator of success. The resulting phrases are better suited to contributing usable technical intelligence than the original results. We engaged seven persons knowledgeable about dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) to assess the resulting content. These empirical results advanced the development of a semi-automated term clumping process that can enable extraction of topical content intelligence. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. - A bibliometric study of China’s science and technology policies: 1949–2010
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
© 2014, Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary.This paper uses a bibliometric analysis method to probe into the evolution of China’s science and technology policies from 1949 to 2010, and the roles of core government agencies in policy-making. We obtained 4,707 Chinese S&T policies from GDIS, a Chinese public policy database provided by Tsinghua University. Co-word analysis and network analysis were applied in mapping the topics of S&T policies and collaboration among the agencies, while citation analysis was applied to assess the influence of S&T policies. Findings include: first, the focus of Chinese S&T policies is mainly on applied research and industrialization, rather than basic research; second, more and more government agencies are involved in making S&T policies, but collaboration efforts are not significantly increasing; last but not least, the influence of different S&T policies is determined by the administrative ranking of the policy-making agencies responsible for drafting those policies. - A patent analysis method to trace technology evolutionary pathways
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
Increased competition due to rapid technological development pushes all participants in the market to focus on the prospect of New and Emerging Science & Technologies (NESTs). One promising NEST, dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs), has attracted attention in recent years. We focus on three research questions: how can we estimate DSSCs research activity trends; how can we identify DSSCs market expansion patterns; and, seeking to identify potential subsystems, what are the likely evolutionary paths of DSSCs development? In this paper, patent analysis is applied to help determine the developmental stage of a particular technology and trace its potential evolutionary pathways. In addition, since patent information can reflect commercial degree, we use patent transfer patterns to help evaluate market shift prospects. © 2014 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - A technology opportunities analysis model: applied to dye-sensitised solar cells for China
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
Technology opportunities analysis (TOA) can support policy-makers or managers in making strategic technical decisions so as to enhance their technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. This paper presents a multi-level framework to support and systematically identify technological opportunities. Patent data as a key component of technology innovation are used to enable TOA within the framework in the present research. At the research and development (R&D) level, we anticipate the directions of technology development based on technology morphology. Countries' development emphases can also be investigated in order to help identify their R&D strengths and weaknesses and to seek promising development pathways. At the level of competition, we devise the assignee-technology analysis to obtain insight into competitive participants' technical emphases and intents. It is also used to explore possible collaboration opportunities among them. At the market level, we apply patent family analysis to understand countries' target markets and to assess prospects for the commercialisation of their technology. We pursue TOA to explore China's opportunities and challenges in dye-sensitised solar cells. The empirical case analysis supports the effectiveness of the TOA model. We believe it can be adapted well to fit other emerging technologies. © 2013 Taylor & Francis. - Clustering scientific documents with topic modeling
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
- Comparing methods to extract technical content for technological intelligence
In: Journal of Engineering and Technology Management - JET-M [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
We are developing indicators for the emergence of science and technology (S&T) topics. To do so, we extract information from various S&T information resources. This paper compares alternative ways of consolidating messy sets of key terms [e.g., using Natural Language Processing on abstracts and titles, together with various keyword sets]. Our process includes combinations of stopword removal, fuzzy term matching, association rules, and term commonality weighting. We compare topic modeling to Principal Components Analysis for a test set of 4104 abstract records on Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells. Results suggest potential to enhance understanding regarding technological topics to help track technological emergence. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. - Distance and velocity measures: Using citations to determine breadth and speed of research impact
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
Research that integrates the social and natural sciences is vital to address many societal challenges, yet is difficult to arrange, conduct, and disseminate. This paper compares diffusion of the research supported by a unique U.S. National Science Foundation program on Human and Social Dynamics ("HSD") with a matched group of heavily cited papers. We offer a measure of the distance of cites between the Web of Science Category ("WoSC") in which a publication appears and the WoSC of the journal citing it, and find that HSD publications are cited more distantly than are comparison publications. We provide another measure-citation velocity-finding that HSD publications are cited with similar lag times as are the comparison papers. These basic citation distance and velocity measures enrich analyses of research knowledge diffusion patterns. © 2014 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - Erratum to: Measuring the development of a common scientific lexicon in nanotechnology (Journal of Nanoparticle Research (2014) 16, (2194) DOI: 10.1007/s11051-013-2194-0)
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research
Date: 2014
- Four dimensional Science and Technology planning: A new approach based on bibliometrics and technology roadmapping
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
Seemingly endless new technologies are emerging. Mapping out Science and Technology (S&T) planning correctly on the national level would help innovation shareholders remain current on technological development trends and gain an advantageous position among the fierce future competition of the global market. Thus, formulating effective S&T planning is significant for a nation, especially for new and emerging technologies. This paper proposes an industry S&T planning framework. Different from previous frameworks, this methodology's dynamic is directed in four dimensions (nation, technology, industry, risks and impacts), tries to find the key elements in a specific technology area, and aims to aid in national S&T planning. China's solar cell industry is employed as the case study. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. - How to combine term clumping and technology roadmapping for newly emerging science & technology competitive intelligence:“problem & solution” pattern based semantic TRIZ tool and case study
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
- Introduction to Special Issue on TechMining
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
- Mapping graphene science and development: Focused research with multiple application areas
In: Bulletin of the Association for Information Science and Technology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
- Measuring the development of a common scientific lexicon in nanotechnology
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
Over the last two decades, nanotechnology has not only grown considerably but also evolved in its use of scientific terminology. This paper examines the growth in nano-prefixed terms in a corpus of nanotechnology scholarly publications over a 21-year time period. The percentage of publications using a nano-prefixed term has increased from <10 % in the early 1990s to nearly 80 % by 2010. A co-word analysis of nano-prefixed terms indicates that the network of these terms has moved from being densely organized around a few common nano-prefixed terms such as "nanostructure" in 2000 to becoming less dense and more differentiated in using additional nano-prefixed terms while continuing to coalesce around the common nano-prefixed terms by 2010. We further observe that the share of nanotechnology papers oriented toward biomedical and clinical medicine applications has risen from just over 5 % to more than 11 %. While these results cannot fully distinguish between the use of nano-prefixed terms in response to broader policy or societal influences, they do suggest that there are intellectual and scientific underpinnings to the growth of a collectively shared vocabulary. We consider whether our findings signify the maturation of a scientific field and the extent to which this denotes the emergence of a shared scientific understanding regarding nanotechnology. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. - Measuring the development of a common scientific lexicon in nanotechnology
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
- Nano-enabled drug delivery: A research profile
In: Nanomedicine: Nanotechnology, Biology, and Medicine [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
Nano-enabled drug delivery (NEDD) systems are rapidly emerging as a key area for nanotechnology application. Understanding the status and developmental prospects of this area around the world is important to determine research priorities, and to evaluate and direct progress. Global research publication and patent databases provide a reservoir of information that can be tapped to provide intelligence for such needs. Here, we present a process to allow for extraction of NEDD-related information from these databases by involving topical experts. This process incorporates in-depth analysis of NEDD literature review papers to identify key subsystems and major topics. We then use these to structure global analysis of NEDD research topical trends and collaborative patterns, inform future innovation directions. From the Clinical Editor: This paper describes the process of how to derive nano-enabled drug delivery-related information from global research and patent databases in an effort to perform comprehensive global analysis of research trends and directions, along with collaborative patterns. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. - Patent Overlay Mapping: Visualizing Technological Distance.
In: Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
- Retire to Boost Research Productivity!
In: Issues in Science and Technology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
- Tech mining to generate indicators of future national technological competitiveness: Nano-Enhanced Drug Delivery (NEDD) in the US and China
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2014
"Global technological competitiveness" is widely acknowledged, but the challenge is to go beyond this recognition to develop empirical indicators of important transitions. These may concern particular technologies, the competitive position of particular organizations, or national/regional shifts. For decades, the US has been the world leader in biomedical technologies, with attendant implications for organizational priorities in terms of R&D location and market targeting. Recent years have seen a tremendous acceleration in Asian research in most domains, including biomedical, particularly visible in China. This paper investigates comparative patterns between the US and China in a promising emerging area of biotechnology - Nano-Enhanced Drug Delivery. It then explores indicators of, and implications for, future transitions at the national level - an approach we label "Forecasting Innovation Pathways.". © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. - A hybrid visualisation model for technology roadmapping: Bibliometrics, qualitative methodology and empirical study
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2013
Technology roadmapping offers a flexible instrument to portray development status in support of technology forecasting and assessment. This paper integrates bibliometrics with qualitative methodologies and visualisation techniques to construct a hybrid model for composing technology roadmaps. The mapping arrays details on the evolution of the technology under study and contributes to understanding the macro-technology development status. We generate a global technology roadmap for electric vehicles to demonstrate the approach in an empirical study. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC. - Facilitating social and natural science cross-disciplinarity: Assessing the human and social dynamics program
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2013
Research that integrates the social and natural sciences is vital to address many societal challenges, yet is difficult to arrange, conduct, and disseminate. This article analyses the cross-disciplinary character of the research supported by a unique US National Science Foundation program on Human and Social Dynamics (HSD). It presents evidence that research publications deriving from this support chiefly pertain to the Social and Behavioral Sciences, but extend widely into the Bio and Medical Sciences, Environmental Sciences, and Physical Sciences and Engineering. Integration scores, based on the diversity of references cited, indicate that the HSD-derived publications are notably more interdisciplinary than those of comparable programs. Diffusion scores, together with science overlay maps, show that uptake of the HSD publications extends into the natural, as well as social, sciences. Research networking analyses, together with a new composite mapping approach, point toward successful catalysis of a new research community. The measures and maps of cross-disciplinary research activity that are advanced here may prove useful in other research assessments. © 2013 The Author. - Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2013
To estimate the future development of one technology and make decisions whether to invest in it or not, one needs to know the current stage of its technology life cycle (TLC). The dominant approach to analysing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time. But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. In this paper, we build a model to calculate the TLC for an object technology based on multiple patent-related indicators. The model includes the following steps: first, we focus on devising and assessing patent-based TLC indicators. Then we choose some technologies (training technologies) with identified life cycle stages, and finally compare the indicator features in training technologies with the indicator values in an object technology (test technology) using a nearest neighbour classifier, which is widely used in pattern recognition to measure the technology life cycle stage of the object technology. Such study can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest and make their R&D strategy accordingly. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. - Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: February 2013
"New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways. We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensor experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases. We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making. © 2011 Elsevier Inc. - Capturing new developments in an emerging technology: An updated search strategy for identifying nanotechnology research outputs
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2013
Bibliometric analysis of publication metadata is an important tool for investigating emerging fields of technology. However, the application of field definitions to define an emerging technology is complicated by ongoing and at times rapid change in the underlying technology itself. There is limited prior work on adapting the bibliometric definitions of emerging technologies as these technologies change over time. The paper addresses this gap. We draw on the example of the modular keyword nanotechnology search strategy developed at Georgia Institute of Technology in 2006. This search approach has seen extensive use in analyzing emerging trends in nanotechnology research and innovation. Yet with the growth of the nanotechnology field, novel materials, particles, technologies, and tools have appeared. We report on the process and results of reviewing and updating this nanotechnology search strategy. By employing structured text-mining software to profile keyword terms, and by soliciting input from domain experts, we identify new nanotechnology-related keywords. We retroactively apply the revised evolutionary lexical query to 20 years of publication data and analyze the results. Our findings indicate that the updated search approach offers an incremental improvement over the original strategy in terms of recall and precision. Additionally, the updated strategy reveals the importance for nanotechnology of several emerging cited-subject categories, particularly in the biomedical sciences, suggesting a further extension of the nanotechnology knowledge domain. The implications of the work for applying bibliometric definitions to emerging technologies are discussed. © 2012 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - Capturing new developments in an emerging technology: an updated search strategy for identifying nanotechnology research outputs.
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2013
- Corrigendum to Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways (Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 24, 8 (843-861))
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management
Date: 2013
- Keyword field cleaning through ClusterSuite: a term-clumping tool for VantagePoint software
In: Global Tech Mining Conference Atlanta 2013
Date: 2013
- Toward a more precise definition of self-citation
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2013
The definition assigned to self-citations is nontrivial. This decision can affect research outputs in a number of ways. The current paper considers the self-citation definition used by the Web of Science, and compares this with an alternative definition, advanced in the present study, within the context of the work of an individual researcher. A discussion follows. © 2012 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - Validating indicators of interdisciplinarity: Linking bibliometric measures to studies of engineering research labs
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2013
This article examines the extent to which specific features of interdisciplinary research are accurately reflected in selected bibliometric measures of scholarly publications over time. To test the validity of these measures, we compare knowledge of research processes and impact based on ethnographic studies of a well-established researcher's laboratory, together with personal interview data, against bibliometric indicators of cognitive integration, diffusion, and impact represented in the entire portfolio of papers produced by this researcher over time. © 2012 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - Validating indicators of interdisciplinarity: linking bibliometric measures to studies of engineering research labs
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2013
- Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: September 2012
Highly uncertain dynamics of New and Emerging Science and Technologies pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. This paper explores the systematisation of the 'Forecasting Innovation Pathways' analytical approach through the application of Tech Mining. Once a set of multi-database, emerging technology search results has been obtained, we devise a means to help extract intelligence on key technology components and functions, major stakeholders, and potential applications. We present results pertaining to the development of dye-sensitised solar cells. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC. - Assessing research network and disciplinary engagement changes induced by an NSF program
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2012
To assess the success of the National Science Foundation's Research Coordination Network (RCN) program, a set of publication measures and visualization tools were used to determine how effective the program is in enhancing interdisciplinary publication and information sharing. The publication patterns of a set of researchers were compared before and after receiving RCN awards. These analyses show significant increases in basic collaboration measures-authors per paper and institutions per paper-following RCN support. Various indications suggest increased linkage among the RCN researchers in terms of extent of co-authoring and of cross-citing each other's work. RCN support appears to foster more interdisciplinary research. Diffusion scores (a new metric) showed that the diversity of articles citing RCN-related articles was similar to those citing control group research. Finally, the articles generated by the project activities showed as especially influential; they appear in high impact journals and are more highly cited. © 2012 The Author. - International collaborative patterns in China's nanotechnology publications
In: International Journal of Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2012
Nanotechnology research has emerged as a monumental scientific endeavour worldwide. Over the past decade, China's nanotechnology publication activity has grown exponentially at an annual rate of about 20%. International collaboration plays a major role in this Chinese research advance. This paper explores these nanotechnology collaboration patterns and collaborators' performance through bibliometric and text mining analyses to draw policy implications for promoting further research. Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. - Visualising potential innovation pathways in a workshop setting: The case of nano-enabled biosensors
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: May 2012
A key element in many future-oriented technology analyses is the expert forecasting workshop. These workshops provide a means of combining codified and tacit knowledge to explore the plausibility of various technology options, providing key intelligence for assessing the potential innovations that may stem from them. This paper offers a five-stage approach to conducting such a workshop. It reflects on attributes of one such session, conducted within a larger study concerning biosensor innovation pathways. The workshop drew upon quantitative and qualitative data to stimulate the consideration of future prospects. We reflect on issues in conveying prior analyses to the workshop participants, keying on the value of succinct visualisations. Post-workshop synthesis resulted in the generation of three innovation pathways for nanobiosensors. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC. - Empirically informing a technology delivery system model for an emerging technology: Illustrated for dye-sensitized solar cells
In: R and D Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2012
This paper explores how to extract empirical knowledge from R&D, patent, and business literature compilations to help compose an innovation system model. It adapts the key elements and dynamics of 'technology delivery system' modeling to a given Newly Emerging Science & Technology. We present a 10-step analytical approach to help characterize the technology, gauge its state of development, and depict the socio-technical system institutions and actors. We apply this to the case of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs). A new 'cross-charting' method appears effective at associating novel technology-enabled capabilities to gain functional advantages, and to link those functions to potential applications. The resulting systems model can help private and public sector decision makers grasp key structures and processes, and how these can be tuned to enhance the prospects of successful innovation. © 2012 The Authors R&D Management © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. - Research coordination networks: Evidence of the relationship between funded interdisciplinary networking and scholarly impact
In: BioScience [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2012
The US National Science Foundation Research Coordination Network (RCN) program broke new ground in funding the development of new research communities of practice. This assessment of RCN supports the conclusion that networking activity was increased for a sample set of projects relative to a comparison group. Journal articles resulting from RCN support are scored as highly interdisciplinary. Moreover, those articles appear as notably influential, being published in high-impact journals and being highly cited. The RCN program does indeed seem to be fostering new biological science research networks. © 2012 Hinterthuer. ISSN. - A forward diversity index
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: February 2012
We introduce an indicator to measure the diffusion of scientific research. Consistent with Stirling's 3-factor diversity model, the diffusion score captures not only variety and balance, but also disparity among citing article cohorts. We apply it to benchmark article samples from six 1995 Web of Science subject categories (SCs) to trace trends in knowledge diffusion over time since publication. Findings indicate that, for most SCs, diffusion scores steadily increase with time. Mathematics is an outlier. We employ a typology of citation trends among benchmark SCs and correlate this with diffusion scores. We also find that self-cites do not, in most cases, significantly influence diffusion scores. © 2011 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - Assessing research network and disciplinary engagement changes induced by an NSF program
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2012
- Nanobiomedical science in China: A research field on the rise
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2012
Medical and health care applications of nanotechnology have increasingly attracted research and innovation attention. Nano-biomedical science (NBMS) is a term we use to define this emerging domain. As China is one of the leading countries in nanotechnology, but lacks a long history as a biosciences leader, this paper explores the competitive positioning of China in the development of NBMS. Specifically, this paper profiles the research patterns of Chinese NBMS in comparison with the four other largest countries in NBMS, using bibliometric techniques. The results indicate that China is a leader in NBMS, leveraging its strengths in chemistry and physics in the broader nanotechnology domain. However, China's relative weakness in traditional biomedical disciplines, and its lack of presence in highly influential global journals, could prove to be limiting factors. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC. - Nanobiomedical science in China: a research field on the rise
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2012
- Text mining to identify topical emergence: Case study on management of technology
In: Proceedings of STI
Date: 2012
- Toward a more precise definition of self-citation
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2012
- Visualising potential innovation pathways in a workshop setting: the case of nano-enabled biosensors.
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2012
- Visualizing Potential Innovation Pathways in a Workshop Setting: The Case of Nano-Enabled Biosensors
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2012
- Measuring the influence of nanotechnology environmental, health and safety research
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2011
Concern about nanotechnology risks has engendered an upsurge of research on environmental, health and safety issues (Nano-EHS). This paper explores the extent to which such research is impacting the field. Citations to a carefully vetted set of Nano-EHS articles are analyzed along several dimensions. One dimension concerns the emergence of a Nano-EHS field, as indicated by shared bodies of research knowledge. A second concerns the extent to which nanotechnology researchers, in general, are taking Nano-EHS results into account in their studies (i.e. how are they citing Nano-EHS articles?). A third dimension explores the degree to which corporate nano-researchers are attendant to Nano-EHS findings. Findings suggest that the sharply increased Nano-EHS funding is translating into sharply increasing research output and the emergence of a research community. General nanotechnology researchers are increasingly citing Nano-EHS results, but still to a very small extent. Furthermore, corporate attention to this research seems to be lagging. These results demonstrate the viability of tracking citation information to substantial bodies of research to assess patterns of influence. That, in turn, offers a useful research evaluation capability. © Beech Tree Publishing 2011. - Tech mining: Text mining and visualization tools, as applied to nanoenhanced solar cells
In: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2011
'Tech mining' is a multistep process for the analysis of science, technology, & innovation ('ST&I') information resources. It uses text mining, visualization, and communication tools to provide the empirical knowledge necessary to address management of technology questions. Tech mining can help assess mature or emerging fields of science and technology, such as nanotechnology. Here, we depict select analyses and visualizations of relevant ST&I data on the topics of nanoenhanced, thin-film solar cells and dye-sensitized solar cells. These analyses help identify complementary and competitive research activity, evaluate research productivity, assess research interdisciplinarity, understand nanotechnology developmental trajectories, and identify and forecast promising nanoapplications. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. - Assessment of Brazil's research literature
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2011
This 'country study' analyses substantial samples of research papers by Brazilian authors drawn from two global databases. The approach and the findings may each be of interest. Our approach is to examine R&D outputs through bibliometrics (to identify key authors, institutions, journals, etc.) and text mining with taxonomy generation (to identify pervasive research thrusts).We extend prior country studies by providing for interactive data access and exploring military-relevant R&D information. The resulting publication activity profiles provide insight on Brazilian R&D strengths and investment strategies, and help identify opportunities for collaboration. Brazil, a nation of 190 million, evidences a substantial research enterprise, with major capabilities in the life and biomedical sciences, as well as the physical sciences. We benchmark research patterns and trends against several other countries.We find a large measure of international collaboration, particularly with the USA. © 2011 Taylor & Francis. - Profiling leading scientists in nanobiomedical science: Interdisciplinarity and potential leading indicators of research directions
In: R and D Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2011
Nanobiomedical science is a promising area in the application of nanotechnology. This paper profiles a group of 21 leading scientists in nanobiomedicine based on high publication rate and high citations. Comparisons with other researchers indicate that the leaders publish more in high impact journals and collaborate more extensively (team science). They reside most heavily in the United States and Western Europe. We compare their research publications using multiple indicators-Integration, Specialization and a Multidisciplinary Index. Relations among interdisciplinarity indicators generated support a three-factor model based on principles of diversity. We locate this research among the disciplines using science overlay mapping. Key term analyses, based on keywords and on natural language processing help profile the research emphases of these leading researchers. Such results could serve as leading indicators to help identify directions of future nanobio development. © 2011 The Authors. R&D Management © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. - Characterising a technology development at the stage of early emerging applications: Nanomaterial-enhanced biosensors
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: May 2011
We devise future-oriented technology analyses tools to investigate a technology at an interesting development stage of early emerging applications. At this stage, technologies show great potential with little established commercialisation. Future development pathways are highly uncertain and heavily dependent on contextual interactions. We apply R&D profiling, R&Dto-applications cross-charting, and technology delivery system modelling to help understand the phenomena that bear upon development prospects. We develop our approach through a two-tier case study: general treatment of nanomaterial-enhanced biosensors, followed by more specialised treatment of one subset of those. Results convey the importance of considering technological and social context factors together to understand likely innovation pathways. © 2011 Taylor & Francis. - Mining external R&D
In: Technovation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2011
Open Innovation presses the case for timely and thorough intelligence concerning research and development activities conducted outside one's organization. To take advantage of this wealth of R&D, one needs to establish a systematic "tech mining" process. We propose a 5-stage framework that extends literature review into research profiling and pattern recognition to answer posed technology management questions. Ultimately one can even discover new knowledge by screening research databases. Once one determines the value in mining external R&D, tough issues remain to be overcome. Technology management has developed a culture that relies more on intuition than on evidence. Changing that culture and implementing effective technical intelligence capabilities is worth the effort. P&G's reported gains in innovation call attention to the huge payoff potential. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. - Charting Nano Environmental, Health, & Safety Research Trajectories: Is China Convergent with the United States?
In: Journal of Science Policy & Governance [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2011
- Does interdisciplinary research lead to higher scientific impact?
In: Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy
Date: 2011
- Organizing a Multidisciplinary Workshop for Forecasting Innovation Pathways: the Case of Nano-Enabled Biosensors
In: Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy
Date: 2011
- The Use of Environmental Health and Safety Research in Nanotechnology Research
In: Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2011
- The use of environmental, health and safety research in nanotechnology research
In: Journal of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2011
Environmental, health, and safety (EHS) concerns are receiving considerable attention in nanoscience and nanotechnology (nano) research and development (R&D). Policymakers and others have urged that research on nano's EHS implications be developed alongside scientific research in the nano domain rather than subsequent to applications. This concurrent perspective suggests the importance of early understanding and measurement of the diffusion of nano EHS research. The paper examines the diffusion of nano EHS publications, defined through a set of search terms, into the broader nano domain using a global nanotechnology R&D database developed at Georgia Tech. The results indicate that nano EHS research is growing rapidly although it is orders of magnitude smaller than the broader nano S&T domain. Nano EHS work is moderately multidisciplinary, but gaps in biomedical nano EHS's connections with environmental nano EHS are apparent. The paper discusses the implications of these results for the continued monitoring and development of the cross-disciplinary utilization of nano EHS research. Copyright © 2011 American Scientific Publishers All rights reserved. - Science overlay maps: A new tool for research policy and library management
In: Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: September 2010
We present a novel approach to visually locate bodies of research within the sciences, both at each moment of time and dynamically. This article describes how this approach fits with other efforts to locally and globally map scientific outputs.We then show how these science overlay maps help benchmarking,explore collaborations, and track temporal changes, using examples of universities, corporations, funding agencies,and research topics. We address their conditions of application and discuss advantages, downsides, and limitations. Overlay maps especially help investigate the increasing number of scientific developments and organizations that do not fit within traditional disciplinary categories.We make these tools available online to enable researchers to explore the ongoing sociocognitive transformations of science and technology systems. © 2010 ASIS&T. - Emerging technologies: Quantitative identification and measurement
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2010
Emerging technologies present both challenges and opportunities for national technology strategies. National governments may therefore want to monitor the technological horizon on a systematic basis. This article outlines the quantitative approaches available for such monitoring. Among the standard types of bibliometric data, proposals and publications are most likely to be useful for this purpose since they capture information earlier in the cycle of technology development. Patents, in contrast, trail behind. Analysis can proceed with keywords or citations, and algorithms are available to use the information structure inherent in these kinds of data to identify and measure emerging areas. There are limitations, however, in all the available approaches and the authors therefore recommend using them in conjunction with expert methods by focusing the qualitative assessment in particular areas. © 2010 Taylor & Francis. - High-tech indicators: Assessing the competitiveness of selected European countries
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2010
Western European nations, along with the USA and Japan, have been recognised as the world's most competitive economies. Eastern European nations have generally been considered to lag. This paper explores whether these descriptions remain accurate and the prospects for change over the coming decade. The Georgia Tech 'High Tech Indicators' (HTI) contribute to the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Science & Engineering Indicators. We cover 33 highly developed and rapidly industrialising countries. Our model of technological competitiveness contains four components - National Orientation, Socioeconomic Infrastructure,Technological Infrastructure, and Productive Capacity - contributing to 'Technological Standing.'We present indicator values, derived from survey and statistical panel data, for 13 European nations (plus the USA as a benchmark), for 1993-2005, and draw inferences about future high tech competitiveness. We see limited technological progress of the Eastern European nations. European prospects appear somewhat uncertain given the dramatic competitive thrusts from Asia. © 2010 Taylor & Francis. - Technology foresight: Types and methods
In: International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2010
This paper posits nine dimensions to distinguish the types of foresight studies. It arrays a rich repertoire of 13 families of foresight methods. It then suggests considerations in deciding which of those methods suit the various types of foresight endeavours. There is no one way to conduct effective foresight studies. Copyright © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. - The emergence of social science research on nanotechnology
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2010
This article examines the development of social science literature focused on the emerging area of nanotechnology. It is guided by the exploratory proposition that early social science work on emerging technologies will draw on science and engineering literature on the technology in question to frame its investigative activities, but as the technologies and societal investments in them progress, social scientists will increasingly develop and draw on their own body of literature. To address this proposition the authors create a database of nanotechnology-social science literature by merging articles from the Web of Science's Social Science Citation Index and Arts and Humanities Citation Index with articles from Scopus. The resulting database comprises 308 records. The findings suggest that there are multiple dimensions of cited literature and that social science citations of other social scientists' works have increased since 2005. © 2010 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary. - Practical research proposal and publication profiling
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2010
We present means to enable profiling to situate research activities (such as proposals or publications) within research domains, identify cognitive and social networks, and track knowledge transfers. Here we profile a set of 123 National Science Foundation educational research awards. We investigate NSF award summaries, proposal references, publications by the funded researchers, and citations to those publications. Our integration measure and science overlay maps show that these ROLE/REESE programs have facilitated interdisciplinary research. NSF program managers were able to associate highly cited researchers into key contributing communities using the co-citation maps. We explore 'before vs. after' research patterns to examine whether this research support altered teaming and cross-disciplinary exchanges. Evaluators can use research profiling to understand the role of particular research endeavors and to study community evolution. © Beech Tree Publishing 2010. - The research profiling method applied to nano-enhanced, thin-film solar cells
In: R and D Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2010
Nanotechnology-enhanced thin-film solar cells constitute promising solar energy solutions and an important emerging application of nanotechnology. This paper profiles the research patterns via 'tech mining' to capture key technological attributes, leading actors and networks. We compare the leading countries, and key organizations, in terms of R&D quantity, impact and diversity. We find that India is a leader in this field, which is a little surprising. India and China show strong trends of relative increase in both research activity and impact. One German organization appears as especially productive and the central node in Germany's research network, which contrasts with the diffused network of the United States. International collaboration patterns also vary, with China particularly showing much less international cooperation than others. Some countries appear to share interests, but they do not show much cooperation - e.g., China with Japan. Research profiling, as illustrated here, can help an R&D manager or policy-maker locate one's intended research activity among existing endeavors, to determine how attractive the opportunities are. Such depictions can also help identify collaboration opportunities and potentially attractive partners. © 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. - A taxonomy of small firm technology commercialization
In: Industrial and Corporate Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2010
- Does interdisciplinary research lead to higher scientific impact
In: STI Indicators Conference, Leiden
Date: 2010
- Identifying the emerging nanoparticle roles in biosensors
In: Journal of Business Chemistry [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2010
- Is there a shift to "active nanostructures"?
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2010
It has been suggested that an important transition in the long-run trajectory of nanotechnology development is a shift from passive to active nanostructures. Such a shift could present different or increased societal impacts and require new approaches for risk assessment. An active nanostructure "changes or evolves its state during its operation," according to the National Science Foundation's (2006) Active Nanostructures and Nanosystems grant solicitation. Active nanostructure examples include nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS), nanomachines, self-healing materials, targeted drugs and chemicals, energy storage devices, and sensors. This article considers two questions: (a) Is there a "shift" to active nanostructures? (b) How can we characterize the prototypical areas into which active nanostructures may emerge? We build upon the NSF definition of active nanostructures to develop a research publication search strategy, with a particular intent to distinguish between passive and active nanotechnologies. We perform bibliometric analyses and describe the main publication trends from 1995 to 2008. We then describe the prototypes of research that emerge based on reading the abstracts and review papers encountered in our search. Preliminary results suggest that there is a sharp rise in active nanostructures publications in 2006, and this rise is maintained in 2007 and through to early 2008. We present a typology that can be used to describe the kind of active nanostructures that may be commercialized and regulated in the future. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. - Is there a shift to “active nanostructures”?
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2010
- Science overlay maps: A new tool for research policy and library management.
In: JASIST [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2010
- The Emergence of Social Science Research in Nanotechnology
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2010
- Where does nanotechnology belong in the map of science?
In: Nature Nanotechnology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: September 2009
- How interdisciplinary is nanotechnology?
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2009
Facilitating cross-disciplinary research has attracted much attention in recent years, with special concerns in nanoscience and nanotechnology. Although policy discourse has emphasized that nanotechnology is substantively integrative, some analysts have countered that it is really a loose amalgam of relatively traditional pockets of physics, chemistry, and other disciplines that interrelate only weakly. We are developing empirical measures to gauge and visualize the extent and nature of interdisciplinary interchange. Such results speak to research organization, funding, and mechanisms to bolster knowledge transfer. In this study, we address the nature of cross-disciplinary linkages using "science overlay maps" of articles, and their references, that have been categorized into subject categories. We find signs that the rate of increase in nano research is slowing, and that its composition is changing (for one, increasing chemistry-related activity). Our results suggest that nanotechnology research encompasses multiple disciplines that draw knowledge from disciplinarily diverse knowledge sources. Nano research is highly, and increasingly, integrative-but so is much of science these days. Tabulating and mapping nano research activity show a dominant core in materials sciences, broadly defined. Additional analyses and maps show that nano research draws extensively upon knowledge presented in other areas; it is not constricted within narrow silos. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. - Is science becoming more interdisciplinary? Measuring and mapping six research fields over time
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2009
In the last two decades there have been studies claiming that science is becoming ever more interdisciplinary. However, the evidence has been anecdotal or partial. Here we investigate how the degree of interdisciplinarity has changed between 1975 and 2005 over six research domains. To do so, we compute well-established bibliometric indicators alongside a new index of interdisciplinarity (Integration score, aka Rao-Stirling diversity) and a science mapping visualization method. The results attest to notable changes in research practices over this 30 year period, namely major increases in number of cited disciplines and references per article (both show about 50% growth), and co-authors per article (about 75% growth). However, the new index of interdisciplinarity only shows a modest increase (mostly around 5% growth). Science maps hint that this is because the distribution of citations of an article remains mainly within neighboring disciplinary areas. These findings suggest that science is indeed becoming more interdisciplinary, but in small steps - drawing mainly from neighboring fields and only modestly increasing the connections to distant cognitive areas. The combination of metrics and overlay science maps provides general benchmarks for future studies of interdisciplinary research characteristics. © 2009 Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest. - International high tech competitiveness: Does China rank number 1?
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: January 2009
This paper compares three selected indicator series that address national, technology-based competitiveness. The 'traditional' Georgia Tech High Tech Indicators (HTI) have been comparing 33 nations with respect to current and future prospects at exporting high tech products since the late 1980s. Those indicators blend expert opinion with statistical time series data. Second, we introduce 'statistics only' HTI, a revised formulation that addresses knowledge-based service export capabilities as well as high tech products, biennially. Third, the World Economic Forum annually generates its Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), treating 125 countries. The traditional HTI reported China supplanting the USA as the top-ranking economy as of 2007. That has generated some controversy. In striking contrast, the 2006-2007 GCI reported China as No. 54. This paper explores the bases for these differences. To a substantial degree, they derive from whether one normalises based on a nation's size. We conclude that these indicator series provide multiple perspectives that complement each other. In the case of China, all of these indicators point to continuing dramatic increase in technology-based economic competitiveness. If not yet, then within not too many years, the USA will likely be supplanted by China as the leading technology-based economy. - How interdisciplinary is nanotechnology?
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2009
- Where does nanotechnology belong in the map of science?
In: Nature Nanotechnology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2009
- How interdisciplinary is a given body of research?
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2008
This article presents results to date produced by a team charged with evaluating the National Academies Keck Futures Initiative, a 15-year US$40 million program to facilitate interdisciplinary research in the United States. The team has developed and tested promising quantitative measures of the integration (I) and specialization (S) of research outputs, the former essential to evaluating the impact of the program. Both measures are based on Thomson-ISI Web of Knowledge subject categories. T measures the cognitive distance (dispersion) among the subject categories of journals cited in a body of research. 'S' measures the spread of subject categories in which a body of research is published. Pilot results for samples from researchers drawn from 22 diverse subject categories show what appears to be a surprisingly high level of interdisciplinarity. Correlations between integration and the degree of co-authorship of selected bodies of research show a low degree of association. © Beech Tree Publishing 2008. - How tech mining can enhance R&D management
In: IEEE Engineering Management Review [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2008
- Nanotechnology publications and citations by leading countries and blocs
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: August 2008
This article examines the relative positions with respect to nanotechnology research publications of the European Union (EU), the United States (US), Japan, Germany, China, and three Asian Tiger nations (South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan). The analysis uses a dataset of nanotechnology publication records for the time period 1990 through 2006 (part year) extracted from the Science Citation Index obtained through the Web of Science and was developed through a two-stage modularized Boolean approach. The results show that although the EU and the US have the highest number of nanotechnology publications, China and other Asian countries are increasing their publications rapidly, taking an ever-larger proportion of the total. When viewed in terms of the quality-based measure of citations, Asian nanotechnology researchers also show growth in recent years. However, by such citation measures, the US still maintains a strongly dominant position, followed by the EU. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. - Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impact on policy and decision-making - The 2006 FTA International Seville Seminar
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: May 2008
- Refining search terms for nanotechnology
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: May 2008
The ability to delineate the boundaries of an emerging technology is central to obtaining an understanding of the technology's research paths and commercialization prospects. Nowhere is this more relevant than in the case of nanotechnology (hereafter identified as "nano") given its current rapid growth and multidisciplinary nature. (Under the rubric of nanotechnology, we also include nanoscience and nanoengineering.) Past efforts have utilized several strategies, including simple term search for the prefix nano, complex lexical and citation-based approaches, and bootstrapping techniques. This research introduces a modularized Boolean approach to defining nanotechnology which has been applied to several research and patenting databases. We explain our approach to downloading and cleaning data, and report initial results. Comparisons of this approach with other nanotechnology search formulations are presented. Implications for search strategy development and profiling of the nanotechnology field are discussed. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. - Nanotechnology publications and citations by leading countries and blocs
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2008
- Refining search terms for nanotechnology
In: Journal of Nanoparticle Research [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2008
- Nanopatenting patterns in relation to product life cycle
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: November 2007
This paper compares the positions of national nanotechnology development efforts based on analyses of patenting from 1994 to 2005. Searching Derwent world patent index files, 19,351 unique patents are collected based on a composite search algorithm. These abstract records are categorized multiple ways - by top patent assignees, by International Patent Classifications, and through content analyses of the "Use" subfield. We classify the R&D activities by using a 3-stage, life cycle, value chain of nano-raw materials, nanointermediates, and nano-products. Profiles of Japanese, American (US), and European (German) emphases show notable differences in concentration and value chain niche. Such characterizations offer significant research management and policy implications. © 2007. - Measuring researcher interdisciplinarity
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2007
We offer two metrics that together help gauge how interdisciplinary a body of research is. Both draw upon Web of Knowledge Subject Categories (SCs) as key units of analysis. We have assembled two substantial Web of Knowledge samples from which to determine how closely individual SCs relate to each other. "Integration" measures the extent to which a research article cites diverse SCs. "Specialization" considers the spread of SCs in which the body of research (e.g., the work of a given author in a specified time period) is published. Pilot results for a sample of researchers show a surprising degree of interdisciplinarity. Copyright © 2007 Akadémiai Kiadó Budapest All rights reserved. - High Tech Competitiveness: Spotlight on Asia, Journal of Management and Social Sciences
Date: April 2007
Beginning in the late 1980’s the Technology Policy and Assessment Center (TPAC) at Georgia Tech has been measuring the capability of nations to compete in technology-enabled exports. The resulting “High Tech Indicators” (HTI) contribute to the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Science & Engineering Indicators. Our focus has been on the rapidly industrializing countries; we include a number of highly developed countries as benchmarks.
In the early days, the inclusion of a number of Asian nations as potential high tech competitors to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) seemed somewhat whimsical. Obviously, the U.S., Japan, and the leading Western European countries were far-removed from the up-and-coming Asian economies. That is no longer the case. In this report, we profile the emergence of the Asian nations as bonafide global competitors. To do so, we emphasize longitudinal comparisons from 1993 through 2005 using our traditional HTI measures for 10 Asian countries plus the U.S. as a benchmark, with selected comparisons to the full set of 33 HTI countries. We then offer a new perspective for 2005 based on our newly formulated statistical HTI measures.
- How "tech mining" can enhance R&D management
In: Research Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2007
Incorporating a richer base of empirical information into R&D management processes can enhance overall industrial management. R&D management incorporated with information mining can identify novel approaches, locate potential collaborators, and exploit the most promising opportunities. The portfolio managers can optimize resource allocation to target the best opportunity and take full advantage of their assets, while intellectual property managers, new developers, and other technology managers can similarly enhance their positioning and payoffs. The key elements of text mining or tech mining are tech innovation process model, future-oriented technology analysis methods, R&D data selection, data treatment, innovation indicators, and well-informed R&D management. tech mining has application in research profiling, intellectual property (IP) management, and mergers and acquisitions. - Mining conference proceedings for corporate technology knowledge management
In: International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2007
An organization's knowledge gained through technical conference attendance is generally isolated to the individual(s) attending the event. The aggregate corporate knowledge is extremely limited, unless the organization institutes a process to document and transfer that knowledge to the organization. Even if such a process exists, the knowledge gains are limited to the experiences and communication skills of the individuals attending the conference. Many conference proceedings are now published and provided to attendees in electronic format, such as on CD-ROM and/or published on the internet, such as IEEE conference proceedings listed at . These proceedings provide a rich repository that can be mined. Paper abstract compilations reflect hot topics, as defined by the researchers in the field, and delineate the technical approaches being applied. R&D profiling can more fully exploit recorded conference proceedings' research to enhance corporate knowledge. This paper illustrates the potential in profiling conference proceedings through use of WebQL information retrieval and TechOasis (VantagePoint) text mining software. It shows how tracking research patterns and changes over a sequence of conferences can illuminate R&D trends, map dominant issues, and spotlight key research organizations. © World Scientific Publishing Company. - MINING CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS FOR CORPORATE TECHNOLOGY KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
In: International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2007
An organization's knowledge gained through technical conference attendance is generally isolated to the individual(s) attending the event. The aggregate corporate knowledge is extremely limited, unless the organization institutes a process to document and transfer that knowledge to the organization. Even if such a process exists, the knowledge gains are limited to the experiences and communication skills of the individuals attending the conference. Many conference proceedings are now published and provided to attendees in electronic format, such as on CD-ROM and/or published on the internet, such as IEEE conference proceedings listed at . These proceedings provide a rich repository that can be mined. Paper abstract compilations reflect "hot topics," as defined by the researchers in the field, and delineate the technical approaches being applied. R&D profiling can more fully exploit recorded conference proceedings' research to enhance corporate knowledge. This paper illustrates the potential in profiling conference proceedings through use of WebQL information retrieval and TechOasis (VantagePoint) text mining software. It shows how tracking research patterns and changes over a sequence of conferences can illuminate R&D trends, map dominant issues, and spotlight key research organizations. - Translation of Innovative Designs into Phase I Trials
In: Journal of Clinical Oncology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2007
- Interdisciplinary research: Meaning, metrics and nurture
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2006
Recognizing prior research and reflection, we offer a definition of interdisciplinary research (IDR) that focuses on integration of concepts, techniques and/or data. We note that this need not entail teaming. Building upon this definition, we discuss its implications for accurate measurement. We then synthesize contextual and process factors expected to foster knowledge integration. These suggest a rich set of research questions concerning the implications for successful IDR of actions by universities, funding organizations, professional associations, and the science media, including journal editors. We seek to engage social scientists who study research practices, organizations, and policy in consideration of interdisciplinary research processes and their evaluation. © Beech Tree Publishing 2006. - Special issue on tech mining
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Date: October 2006
- Nanopatenting patterns raise issues for managers, countries
In: Research Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2006
The exponential growth in the area of nanotechnology patenting across the countries such as the US, Japan, China, Germany, and Korea is imposing challenges to the managers in the research field. The nanopatents are categorized along the value chain into three groupings which include nano raw materials, nano intermediates, nano products. The dynamic of the innovation in the emerging area of nanotechnology demonstrates distinctly different patenting strategies and the country that leads in the nanopatents, the US, demonstrates diffuse interests. The country must consider national foresight efforts in order to meet the rapidly declining advantages of the US in the global R & D. The country has ignored priority-setting, enjoying the resources to pursue bottom-up resources and engineering agendas and the results pose counterpart national policy challenges. - Just-in-time technology analysis support
In: International Journal of Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: May 2006
This paper offers a vision of 'Just-in-Time (JIT) Technology Analyses' (TA) - fast, timely, and structured guidance in support of technological decision making. It provides a framework to translate technology strategy into a set of operational indicators for assessing innovation prospects. The paper weighs advantages and impacts of timely information for organisational decision making. It notes the technological and organisational requirements for JIT analyses, then briefly discusses the steps involved, as well as opportunities for rapid and automated analyses. Six brief vignettes illustrate the principles and potential of JIT-TA. Copyright © 2006 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. - A societal outcomes map for health research and policy
In: American Journal of Public Health [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2006
The linkages between decisions about health research and policy and actual health outcomes may be extraordinarily difficult to specify. We performed a pilot application of a "road mapping" and technology assessment technique to perinatal health to illustrate how this technique can clarify the relations between available options and improved health outcomes. We used a combination of datamining techniques and qualitative analyses to set up the underlying structure of a societal health outcomes road map. Societal health outcomes road mapping may be a useful tool for enhancing the ability of the public health community, policymakers, and other stakeholders, such as research administrators, to understand health research and policy options. - A systems model of innovation processes in university STEM education
In: Journal of Engineering Education [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2006
Drawing upon understanding of innovation processes in other domains, we construct a model of the innovation system for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education. The model suggests that higher educational innovation in research universities is severely disadvantaged in many regards. Paramount is the lack of a "natural" innovator who, analogous to the engineer in an industrial research and development lab, has professional training and incentives to perform a significant professional role - teaching. The model suggests a number of organizational and structural factors that must be addressed, systemically, to bolster prospects of educational improvement at research universities. Changing single factors, without attention to the interactive systems nature of STEM educational processes, is unlikely to prove effective in improving undergraduate education. - High tech competitiveness: Spotlight on Asia
In: Journal of Management and Social Sciences [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2006
- Tech Mining Special Issue (Introduction)
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2006
- QTIP: Quick technology intelligence processes
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: November 2005
Empirical technology analyses need not take months; they can be done in minutes. One can thereby take advantage of wide availability of rich science and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management. To do so requires developing templates of innovation indicators to answer standard questions. Then, one can automate routines to generate composite information representations ("one-pagers") that address the issues at hand, the way that the target users want. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. - Differences over a decade: High tech capabilities and competitive performance of 28 nations
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: August 2005
People often look to technology-based advancement as the key to achieving and maintaining economic competitiveness. This belief often resonates through national policy at the highest levels. Does investing in high technology really provide a competitive advantage? Since 1986, researchers at Georgia Tech's Technology Policy and Assessment Center have been systematically monitoring national high technology-based industrial competitiveness to help address this question. This paper reports on a longitudinal assessment of high technology capability and resulting competitive standing across 28 countries from 1993 through 2003. © Beech Tree Publishing 2005. - Differences Over a Decade: High Tech Capabilities and Competitive Performance of 28 Nations
Date: January 2005
- Global Technological Competitiveness: The Rise of China: 1993-2005
Date: January 2005
- Differences over a decade: high tech capabilities and competitive performance of 28 nations
In: Research Evaluation
Date: 2005
- Tech mining
In: Competitive Intelligence Magazine
Date: 2005
- Get what you need from technology information products
In: Research Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: November 2004
The challenges faced by the empirical technology analysts in educating the managers on technology management is discussed. The decision makers tend to follow the familiar sources and to go away from empirical analysis which is less familiar. The empirical analysts need to give equal importance to presentations as given to their innovative works to obtain more acceptance from the managers. The analysts must provide as many technology management information as possible to the managers to help them in decision making process. - The education of a technology policy analyst - To process management
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2004
Technology policy analysis emphasizes logical resolution of issues based on conceptual models, data, and analyses, but this often is not enough to accomplish anything. Policy-makers routinely disregard policy analyses, even when well done, timely, and pertinent to the issues at hand. Process management complements policy analysis by directing attention to the interactions through which disparate interests reconcile their differences to initiate viable action. We pose five questions that constitute a situational analysis decision tree. Based on answers to those questions, we distinguish five action approaches (including 'do nothing') that can enhance the utilization of technology analyses. These approaches demand skills, not always paramount in policy analysis, to run processes that engage stakeholders. We illustrate how process management can enhance the utilization of technology policy analysis through a hypothetical case. © 2004 Taylor & Francis Ltd. - High Tech Indicators: Who's Gaining?
Date: March 2004
- Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2004
Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used-from industrial to information and molecular-make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy. © 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. - High Tech Indicators: Who’s Gaining
In: Technology Exports
Date: 2004
- Projects and publications: Interesting patterns in US Environmental Protection Agency research
In: Research Evaluation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2003
We analyze samples of EPA research projects concerning endocrine disruptors and ecosystem indicators. Prior collaboration among researchers predicts effective teaming well. The projects are quite productive in terms of resulting publications and citations. We assess project-related publication in two ways: in the context of overall publication by the researchers over a decade, and with respect to general activity patterns in these two research domains. Most intriguing is a disparity between research program focus, and the emphases of resulting research publications. - R and D cluster quality measures and technology maturity
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: October 2003
"Innovation indicators" strive to track the maturation of an emerging technology to help forecast its prospective development. One rich source of information is the changing content of discourse of R&D, as the technology progresses. We analyze the content of research paper abstracts obtained by searching large databases on a given topic. We then map the evolution of that topic's emphasis areas. The present research seeks to validate a process that creates factors (clusters) based on term usage in technical papers. Three composite quality measures-cohesion, entropy, and F measure-are computed. Using these measures, we create standard factor groupings that optimize the composite term sets and facilitate comparisons of the R&D emphasis areas (i.e., clusters) over time. The conceptual foundation for this approach lies in the presumption that domain knowledge expands and becomes more application specific in nature as a technology matures. We hypothesize implications for this knowledge expansion in terms of the three factor measures, then observe these empirically for the case of a particular technology-autonomous navigation. These metrics can provide indicators of technological maturation. © 2002 Published by Science Inc. - Iraqi engineering: Where has all the research gone?
In: Science and Public Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2003
To what extent have Iraqi engineering research emphases changed over the past 15 years or so? Exploration of Iraqi publication patterns shows a dramatic rise in activity through 1990, followed by a precipitous decline through early 2003. Iraqi engineering research emphases include chemistry and chemical engineering, information technology, applied math and simulation, applied physics, and circuits and controls. Modeling and simulation, and attention to thin semi-conductor films, show relatively increased recent emphasis. We also observe interesting institutional patterns. Government-run universities, plus the Science Research Council, dominate engineering research publication. The net effect of this study is to raise questions about the current status of Iraqi engineering R&D. Knowledge of changes in engineering publication patterns can inform deliberations about Iraqi capabilities and emphases, but drawing policy implications requires expert review. - A Comparison of Recent Assessments of the High -Tech Competitiveness of Nations
Date: June 2002
The Technology Policy and Assessment Center at Georgia Institute of Technology, primarily with support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), has been working on “High Tech Indicators” of national technological competitiveness since 1987. This paper summarizes the Technology Competitiveness Indicators for 33 nations in 1999 and provides vertical comparisons with the same research project results conducted in 1993 and 1996.Also, the authors compare the Georgia Tech HTI with the U.S. Council on Competitiveness Innovation Index; TheWorld Competitiveness Yearbook (edited by the International Institute for Management Development, Lausanne,Switzerland); and the competitiveness rankings generated by researchers at the United Nations University inMaastricht. The paper concludes with observations about the differences in country rankings generated by thesedifferent efforts to measure national competitiveness.
- Measuring National 'Emerging Technology' Capabilities
Date: June 2002
How can national capabilities to develop emerging technologies be measured? We use INSPEC and EI Compendex class codes to examine 33 countries’ research and development activity. We select candidate emerging technologies based on the Rand Corporation’s categories. We screen these to tally those that show strong recent, and increasing, R&D publication rates. The resulting measures show strong convergence; indeed, their lack of divergence is unsettling. Our measures suggest that China now stands forth as an emerging technology’ research power comparable to Germany, the UK, and France. A number of other nations evidence a striking lack of R&D activity, posing questions about their longerrange high-tech competitiveness.
- Automated extraction and visualization of information for technological intelligence and forecasting
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2002
Empirical technology forecasting (TF) is not well utilized in technology management. Three factors could enhance managerial utilization: capability to exploit huge volumes of available information, ways to do so very quickly, and informative representations that help manage emerging technologies. This paper reports on efforts to address these three factors via partially automated processes to generate helpful knowledge from text quickly and graphically. We first illustrate a process to generate a family of technology maps that help convey emphases, players, and patterns in the development of a target technology. Second, we exemplify the generation of particular "innovation indicators" that measure particular facets of R and D activity to relate these to technological maturation, contextual influences, and market potential. Both technology mapping and innovation indicators rely upon searches in huge, easily accessible, abstract databases and text mining software. We augment these through "macros" (programming scripts) that automatically sequence the necessary steps to generate particular desired information products. These analytical findings can be tailored to the needs of particular technology managers. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. - Measuring national 'emerging technology' capabilities
In: Science and Public Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2002
How can national capabilities to develop emerging technologies be measured? We use INSPEC and EI Compendex class codes to examine 33 countries' research and development activity. We select candidate emerging technologies based on the Rand Corporation's categories. We screen these to tally those that show strong recent, and increasing, R and D publication rates. The resulting measures show strong convergence; indeed, their lack of divergence is unsettling. Our measures suggest that China now stands forth as an 'emerging technology' research power comparable to Germany, the UK, and France. A number of other nations evidence a striking lack of R and D activity, posing questions about their longer-range high-tech competitiveness. - Research profiling: Improving the literature review
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2002
We propose enhancing the traditional literature review through "research profiling". This broad scan of contextual literature can extend the span of science by better linking efforts across research domains. Topical relationships, research trends, and complementary capabilities can be discovered, thereby facilitating research projects. Modern search engine and text mining tools enable research profiling by exploiting the wealth of accessible information in electronic abstract databases such as MEDLINE and Science Citation Index. We illustrate the potential by showing sixteen ways that "research profiling" can augment a traditional literature review on the topic of data mining. - A comparison of recent assessments of the high-tech competitiveness of nations
In: International Journal of Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2002
The Technology Policy and Assessment Center at Georgia Institute of Technology, primarily with support from the US National Science Foundation (NSF), has been working on "High Tech Indicators" of national technological competitiveness since 1987. This paper summarises the Technology Competitiveness Indicators for 33 nations in 1999 and provides vertical comparisons with the same research project results conducted in 1993 and 1996. Also, the authors compare the Georgia Tech HTI with the US Council on Competitiveness Innovation Index; the World Competitiveness Yearbook (edited by the International Institute for Management Development, Lausanne, Switzerland); and the competitiveness rankings generated by researchers at the United Nations University in Maastricht. The paper concludes with observations about the differences in country rankings generated by these different efforts to measure national competitiveness. - Changes in national technological competitiveness: 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1999
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2001
Georgia Tech's Technology Policy and Assessment Center, with support from the US National Science Foundation, has been generating High-Tech Indicators (HTI)-measures of national technology-based export competitiveness since 1987. This paper reports the HTI results for 33 nations in 1999 in comparison with those of 1990, 1993 and 1996. HTI includes four 'input indicators' and a key 'output indicator' - technological standing. We construct a new composite input indicator here and examine its predictive capability. Input indicators for 1990 and 1993 show intriguing relationships to 1999 technological standing. We compare the indicators for various groups-leading and emerging Western economies, rapidly developing Asian economies, former Eastern Bloc nations and lagging Latin American countries. The USA presently exhibits a dominant position, but signs strongly point toward increasingly broad-based competition in technology-based products. - On the future of technological forecasting
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: May 2001
Technological forecasting is now poised to respond to the emerging needs of private and public sector organizations in the highly competitive global environment. The history of the subject and its variant forms, including impact assessment, national foresight studies, roadmapping, and competitive technological intelligence, shows how it has responded to changing institutional motivations. Renewed focus on innovation, attention to science-based opportunities, and broad social and political factors will bring renewed attention to technological forecasting in industry, government, and academia. Promising new tools are anticipated, borrowing variously from fields such as political science, computer science, scientometrics, innovation management, and complexity science. © 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. - Factors required for successful implementation of futures research in decision making.
In: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Date: March 2001
- Information professionals: changing tools, changing roles
In: Information outlook
Date: 2001
- Depth perception
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Date: December 1999
- Tech forecasting: An empirical perspective
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 1999
- Changes in National Technological Competitiveness: 1990-93-96-99
Date: January 1999
Georgia Tech’s Technology Policy and Assessment Center, with support from the US National Science Foundation, has been generating High Tech Indicators (HTI) – measures of national technology-based export competitiveness since 1987. This paper reports the HTI results for 33 nations in 1999 in comparison with those of 1990, 1993, and 1996.HTI includes four “input indicators” and a key “output indicator” – technological standing. We construct a new composite input indicator here and examine its predictive capability. Input indicators for 1990 and 1993 show intriguing relationships to 1999 technological standing. We compare the indicators for various groups – leading and emerging Western economies, rapidly developing Asian economies, former East Bloc nations, and lagging Latin American countries. The United States presently exhibits a dominant position, but signs strongly point toward increasingly broad-based competition in technology-based products.
- A process for mining science & technology documents databases, illustrated for the case of" knowledge discovery and data mining"
In: Ciência da Informaç ao [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1999
- Functional analysis: deriving systems knowledge from bibliographic information resources
In: Information Knowledge Systems Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1999
- Integrating environmental consequences and impact assessment into design processes and corporate strategy
In: Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1999
- Innovation forecasting using bibliometrics
In: Competitive Intelligence Review [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1998
- Innovation Forecasting
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: September 1997
Technological forecasting is premised on a certain orderliness of the innovation process. Myriad studies of technological substitution, diffusion, and transfer processes have yielded conceptual models of what matters for successful innovation, but most technological forecasts key on limited empirical measures quite divorced from those innovation process models. We glean a number of concepts from various innovation models, then present an array of bibliometric measures that offer the promise of operationalizing these concepts. Judicious combination of such bibliometrics with other forms of evidence offers an enriched form of technological forecasting we call "innovation forecasting." This provides a good means to combine technological trends, mapping of technological interdependencies, and competitive intelligence to produce a viable forecast. We illustrate by assessing prospects for ceramic engine technologies. © 1997 Elsevier Science Inc. - Indicators of high technology competitiveness of 28 countries
In: International Journal of Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 1996
Georgia Tech, with support from the National Science Foundation, has now completed a decade of development of indicators of national high technology competitiveness. This paper reports on the standing, emphasis, and rate of change of high tech competitiveness for 28 nations. Results show strong standing for the '4 Asian tigers', comparable to many Western European countries. Five of our '6 Asian cubs' show dramatic rates of growth in high tech production and export capabilities; the 4 Tigers no longer show strong growth. Patterns are presented and discussed as well for 'the Big 3' (Japan, USA, Germany), three non-European developed economies, two former East Bloc countries, and three Latin American nations. Our panel of 180 experts project a dramatic broadening of global high tech export competition over the coming 15 years. - Less labor, longer lives: Time to share
In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 1996
Two driving forces are changing modern life. First, significantly less labor is needed as productivity rises. Second, people are living longer - anticipate an 85-year life expectancy by 2020. We focus on two prominent consequences of these interacting drivers: new modes to allocate wealth need to be devised as those linked to 'the job' prove inadequate; And how we spend our time is changing. We consider time distribution among three forms of work (market, community, home), learning and communication, and play. We conclude that dramatic policy actions are in order to break free of societal reliance upon traditional jobs and to provide the expanding senior population a good quality of life. - Anticipating the future high-tech competitiveness of nations: indicators for twenty-eight countries
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: February 1996
This article presents some of the major results obtained during the third phase of a continuing research effort to develop and implement national indicators of competitiveness in high technology industries. The first phase, begun in 1987, developed a conceptual model of the processes by which industrializing nations gain access to external technology and technical information, absorb that technology/information effectively, and institutionalize a science-based development and manufacturing capability leading to export-led growth in high technology products. Four "input" or leading indicators of a nation's future capacity (15-year time horizons) to compete in international markets in high technology products were developed, as were three "output" indicators of a nation's current international competitiveness. During this first phase, the seven indicators were applied to data for twenty countries representing a range of regions and extent of industrialization. The second phase used 1990 data on an expanded set of countries to examine in detail the indicators' reliability and validity. The third phase of indicators work (1992-1995): (1) developed seven indicators whose definitions were recommended in our 1991 final report to the Science Indicators Unit of the National Science Foundation, and (2) collected the necessary data (1993) and applied them to generate a set of indicators for 28 countries using these recommended formulations. This article focuses on the input indicators for the 28 countries and compares these 1993 results with those from 1990. We discuss the implications of these results for technology-based development theory and for development policy. A separate, companion article published elsewhere presents the output indicator results. - Electronics manufacturing in 2020: A national technological university management of technology mini-Delphi
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: February 1996
A Delphi study projects a series of critical changes in electronics manufacturing over the coming quarter-century. These changes imply a need for early planning to adapt production processes to altered materials, integrated products, environmentally conscious processes, different applications, and a markedly different workforce. - 1996 Indicators of Technology-Based Competitiveness of Nations
Date: January 1996
The Georgia Tech High Tech Indicators (HTI) were initiated in conjunction with Science and Technology Consultants, under the leadership of Thomas Kuehn and Russell Drew. Over the past decade, indicator researh and refinement has been centered at Georgia Tech. Support has been provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation's Science Resources Studies Unit and the Research on Science & Technology Program to enrich Science and Engineering Indicators.
We welcome CIBER contacts in sharing information on technology-based competitiveness in various nations and in working together to identify technological opportunities.
In 1999 we plan another round of HTI. Our International Indicators Panel consists of persons with expertise on technology-based development in 30 countries. Please e-mail us if you would be interested in participating (via e-mail and the worldwide web).
- Technology opportunities analysis
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1995
We present an approach to efficiently generate effective intelligence on emerging technologies. This approach draws on monitoring and bibliometrics to mine the wealth of information available in major public electronic databases. The approach uses new software to expedite secondary analyses of database searches on topics of interest. We illustrate the range of information profiles possible by examining research and development (R&D) publications and patents pertaining to electronics assembly and, more specifically, to multichip module development. © 1995. - Technology Opportunities Analysis: Integrating Technology Monitoring, Forecasting & Assessment with Strategic Planning
In: SRA Journal [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1994
- Essay review: Virtual Companies Reconsidered
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management
Date: 1993
An important recent report recommends the creation of ‘virtual companies’—companies formed from electronically linked workers who remain employees of their regular firms. This paper criticizes that model, instead suggesting that virtual companies have their own employees. The assessment of the implications of both types of virtual company points to the need for major national policy changes with respect to employment practices and mechanisms to convey wealth to people. © 1993, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved. - The opening of the ‘nano-age’?
In: Science and Public Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1993
- Virtual companies reconsidered: Essay review
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management
Date: 1993
- TAMING THE FUTURE - WATT,KEF
In: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
Date: December 1992
- Taming the future: Kenneth E.F. Watt
Date: December 1992
- A comparative study of impact assessment methods in developed and developing countries
In: Impact Assessment [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1992
- Communication Networks: A Dozen Ways they’ll Alter Our Lives
In: The Futurist
Date: 1992
- National Capacities to Absorb and Institutionalize External Science and Technology
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1992
This article describes a conceptual model of technology absorption and adaptation leading to a country’s export-based competitiveness in high-technology products, and the results of the model’s application to empirical data on 29 countries. The model is one output of a recently-completed, five-year investigation of indicators of high-technology development. The model’s seven conceptual variables were operationalized by combining statistical data with expert-derived measures to produce composite indicators. The seven indicators include four “leading” or input indicators that are expected to be predictive of a nation’s competitiveness, in high-technology products in approximately 15 years, and three output indicators of current competitiveness: world market share, national emphasis on high technology products for export, and recent rate of change in world market share. Extensive assessment of the validity and reliability of the indicators leads to the conclusion that the mode!! is a useful tool, for both policy and research. © 1992, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved. - The Innovation impact model: a tool to study the impact of technological change
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1992
- Urban economic development on the grand scale: Impact assessment issues for shanghai's pudong new area
In: Impact Assessment [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1992
- Expert systems: Present and future
In: Expert Systems With Applications [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1991
This paper aims to forecast the evolution of expert systems over the coming 5-10 years. To do so, the authors introduce a conceptual model that identifies four major areas that contribute to expert systems. The paper discusses advances in each of these four areas and relates these to changes in expert systems technology. The paper then ties quantitative trends with these qualitative advances to anticipate what expert systems will be like in the 1990s. © 1991. - Markov formulation of cross-impact analysis for impact assessment and forecasting
In: Impact Assessment [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1991
- Cross-impact analysis
In: Project Appraisal
Date: 1990
Cross-impact can provide an orderly method of structuring thinking and data on how various trends and events relating to a project or program may interact with one another. This briefly outlines the method and some limitations. © 1990 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. - Discretionary databases in forecasting
In: Journal of Forecasting [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1990
Information for forecasting databases is often initially under the control of individuals who have no compelling reason to contribute, and who face various significant costs if they do. Such discretionary databases are subject to public goods problems, and are likely to be undersupplied, even when all participants agree that the overall benefits outweigh the overall costs. This paper explores the implications of this incentive structure for the existence, completeness and accuracy of forecasting databases. It also offers some hypotheses as to when the difficulties will be more and less severe, and outlines some directions for possible remedial strategies. Copyright © 1990 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. - Nanotechnology: Scenarios of development and impact
In: Science and Public Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1990
A nanotechnology scenario is presented as if observing the world from the year 2015. The incremental, high techno-economic and total societal scenarios convey the range of possibilities that ought to be anticipated. The implications are too great for the traditional reliance on reactive ‘social innovation’ in response to technological innovation gone awry. Given the magnitude of the potential impacts several actions appear warranted now: the topic should be considered immediately; centers should be set up backed by government and industry support; ongoing public education efforts should build on the recent spurt of popular coverage of nanotechnology; governmental and academic units should devise alternative institutional structures to deal with emerging nanotechnology issues. © Beech Tree Publishing 1990. - An Impact Assessment Perspective in Research Planning: The Case of a Research Institute in China
In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1989
This paper addresses the planning process for a Chinese Technological Research Institute. We suggest broadening the scope of planning to encompass wide-ranging impacts. This orientation facilitates product selection and research utilization. © 1989, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved. - IAIA: The first decade
In: Impact Assessment
Date: 1989
The International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA) traces back to a session of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) held January 6, 1980. Charlie Wolf, Fred Rossini and I organized that session on “Integrated Impact Assessment.” During that all-day meeting, discussion turned to forming an association to succeed the former International Society for Technology Assessment (ISTA). Strategizing carried on through a Chinese dinner. After dinner Charlie opened his fortune cookie and read: “You will do well to expand your business.” Based on this “Fortune Cookie Impact Statement, ” we decided to proceed. © 1989 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. - Citations and scientific progress: Comparing bibliometric measures with scientist judgments
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 1988
This project compares various bibliometric measures and scientists' own judgments. Publication and cittion data are compiled for two cohorts of chemists awarded Sloan Fellowships. Citation patterns differ substantially between most cited papers and those these authors identify as their "best." Theoretical, empirical, and methodological papers are contrasted as well. In addition, temporal citation patterns show that recognition spreads beyond the research area of a particular paper to yield "cross-disciplinary" citation surprisingly rapidly. Results suggest the utility of studying citation patterns among the Institute for Scientific Information Subject Categories, but also caution against equating publication and citation counts with scientific progress. © 1988 Akadémiai Kiadó. - Technological Innovation and Development: Prospects for China
In: IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1988
The Western literature on innovation processes, augmented by that based on experiences in centrally planned economies, suggests eleven factors important to technology-based economic development in China. China needs to enhance its sources of capital, accept competition at individual and enterprise levels, and reduce governmental influence in the management of technological processes. In addition, shifting scientific/ engineering norms to share information, more effective reward mechanisms for innovation, better staff support, and upgrading management capabilities would encourage technological development. On balance, these weaknesses are outweighed by the strong national commitment to technology-based economic development and the demonstrated economic accomplishments of the past decade. Barring the unlikely resurgence of radical leftist forces, we predict that China will significantly impact global markets for technology-intensive products by the year 2000. © 1988 IEEE - Trends in computer use in industrial R & D.
In: Research Technology Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1988
- A two-factor model of the effects of office automation on employment
In: Office Technology and People [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1987
- Innovation and impact: The introduction of microcomputers into business in china
In: Impact Assessment [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1987
- R and D Project Selection and Evaluation: A Microcomputer‐Based Approach
In: R&D Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1987
This paper develops microcomputer‐based R and D project selection and project evaluation models. The models use Lotus 1‐2‐3 as a vehicle to provide practical research management support suitable for a developing country. The models are readily adaptable for various R and D management applications. Copyright © 1987, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved - R and D Project Selection and Evaluation: A Microcomputer‐Based Approach
In: R&D Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1987
This paper develops microcomputer‐based R and D project selection and project evaluation models. The models use Lotus 1‐2‐3 as a vehicle to provide practical research management support suitable for a developing country. The models are readily adaptable for various R and D management applications. Copyright © 1987, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved - Reducing earthquake risk: Alternative policy processes
In: Project Appraisal [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1987
Developing effective environmental policies involves diverse parties-at-interest in complex, long-term relationships. This paper addresses policies to mitigate risks to structures from earthquakes in the Southeastern United States. This problem is characterized by a lack of perceived risk, despite expert consensus that a substantial physical risk exists. We first present a general model of the environmental policy actions that might be taken. This model is then used to weigh a dozen alternative policy strategies that have been advocated in certain contexts. We conclude that a limited set of strategies offer promise for this “10% risk; 10% solution” situation. © 1987 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. - A forecast of office automation technology to 2000
In: Impact Assessment [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1986
This paper presents a forecast of developments in technologies involved in white collar automation through the year 2000. It divides the technologies according to their primary information-related function. The functions to be considered include input, processing, data base management, output, and communications. Technologies are divided into three levels of aggregation: components (e.g., microprocessors), devices (e.g., microcomputers), and systems (e.g., terminals linked to a minicomputer). The forecast is synthesized from primary and secondary sources to suggest general directions of technological developments in the office automation area. © 1986 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. - A new form of industrialization: Microcomputers in developing countries
In: Impact Assessment [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1986
The Information Revolution is unlike the Industrial Revolution. Information technologies, epitomized by the microcomputer, differ from the technologies of industrialization. These new technologies, by virtue of their accessibility, are appropriate to rapid, though uneven, assimilation by developing countries. Simple benefit/cost estimations demonstrate the economic attraction of adoption of microcomputers. However, the impacts of such adoption include expansion of home markets and increased technical employment, but also overall higher underemployment and forced social change. Impact profiles reflect a nations's current stage of development and a number of specific factors identified through a technological delivery system model. This model offers a planning tool for the Information Revolution. © 1986 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. - Current and Future Uses of the Computer: Industrial R&D in the United States
In: R&D Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1986
This study of 158 organizations sought to depict current uses of computers in R&D. A survey of senior R&D management by the Industrial Research Institute identifies a number of salient features. Routine computer use is becoming a characteristic of scientists, engineers, and managers. Yet characteristics of usage differ markedly by size of R&D unit and by line of business. Moreover, patterns of responses suggest on‐going changes toward the time when R&D will be strongly coloured by the context of an integrated, intelligent computer environment. This implies new roles and skill requirements for R&D managers, professionals, and support staff. Copyright © 1986, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved - Current and Future Uses of the Computer: Industrial R&D in the United States
In: R&D Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1986
This study of 158 organizations sought to depict current uses of computers in R&D. A survey of senior R&D management by the Industrial Research Institute identifies a number of salient features. Routine computer use is becoming a characteristic of scientists, engineers, and managers. Yet characteristics of usage differ markedly by size of R&D unit and by line of business. Moreover, patterns of responses suggest on‐going changes toward the time when R&D will be strongly coloured by the context of an integrated, intelligent computer environment. This implies new roles and skill requirements for R&D managers, professionals, and support staff. Copyright © 1986, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved - Impact assessment today, utrecht, 1986
In: Impact Assessment
Date: 1986
- Interdisciplinarity: How do we Know thee
In: Interdisciplinary analysis and research, Maryland: Lomond [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1986
- Multiskill Research
In: Science Communication [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1986
Crossdisciplinary research plays a major role in addressing many problems of intellectual and societal importance. We describe a framework to characterize such projects that replaces “discipline “by” intellectual skills.” We applied this framework to study 40 National Science Foundation-sponsored projects. We found that the intellectual skills varied widely among projects in depth, range, andform. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we found that many academic departments were “open” to broad ranging skill acquisition and use. Unfortunately our evidence found NSF peer review processes unfavorably disposed to multiskill projects. Lastly, we discuss various approaches to organizing and practicing such research. © 1986, Sage Publications. All rights reserved. - Who's Using Computers in Industrial R&D, and for What
In: Research Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1986
- MICROCOMPUTERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: INDUSTRIALIZATION IN THE INFORMATION AGE.
In: The International journal of applied engineering education [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 1985
The Information Revolution, driven by computer and communication technologies, is well under way in the industrialized countries. The less developed countries (LDCs) vary tremendously in revenue per capita, resources, economic growth rate, and R&D capabilities. Thus the implications of information technology of LDCs vary widely. A technological delivery system is used to identify the technological developments and institutions involved in the utilization of microcomputers in developing countries. - An indicator of cross-disciplinary research
In: Scientometrics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: September 1985
Study of interdisciplinary research processes and performance is hampered by a lack of data. This project investigated possible indicators based in the open scientific literature to measure such processes. Focusing on the Journal Citation Reports as a suitable data base, alternative indicators were validated on a sample of 383 articles drawn from 19 journals. The results support the use of Citations Outside Category as an indicator of cross-disciplinary research activity. An estimated version of this indicator is used to examine three research categories - Demography, Operations Research/Management Science, and Toxicology - as to the extent of cross-disciplinary citation occurring by the journals in these categories and to them. Results suggest that Citations Outside Category can be a quite informative bibliometric measure. A key substantive finding is that citation across broad field categories (engineering, life sciences, physical sciences, and social sciences) is extremely infrequent. © 1985 Akadémiai Kiadó. - EFTE: An interactive Delphi method
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1985
A new expert opinion technique is developed and applied to estimate the impact of information technologies on clerical work. EFTE stands for estimate, feedback, talk, estimate-the sequence of steps involved in this variant on the Delphi approach. EFTE offers advantages in obtaining expert opinions on complex tasks where social interaction poses little problem. © 1985. - Industrial robots—A strategic forecast using the technological delivery system approach
In: Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1985
- Industrial Robots—A Strategic Forecast using the Technological Delivery System Approach
In: IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1985
Key factors influencing robotics are identified and then used to set forth a strategic forecast of robot development and utilization, including scenarios of major societal effects. © 1985 IEEE. - Peer Review of Interdisciplinary Research Proposals
In: Science, Technology & Human Values [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1985
- Interdisciplinary research redefined: Multi‐skill, problem‐focussed research in the STRAP framework
In: R&D Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1984
A new framework for the study of interdisciplinary research processes is presented ‘STRAP’ emphasizes the combination of identifiable skills—substantive knowledge and techniques—that must come together to solve a complex research problem. This framework holds promise of better accommodating non‐academic settings and yielding new insights into the management of complex R&D projects. Copyright © 1984, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved - Public participation and professionalism in impact assessment
In: Citizen participation in science policy. The University of Massachusetts Press, Amherst [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1984
- WORK ISSUES RAISED BY OFFICE AUTOMATION CALL FOR EXPERTISE OF INDUSTRIAL-ENGINEERS
In: INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING
Date: 1984
- “Citation classics” analysis: An approach to characterizing interdisciplinary research
In: Journal of the American Society for Information Science [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1984
The Science Indicators series has paid little heed to interdisciplinary research. This article seeks (1) to distinguish multi‐ or interdisciplinary (IDR) research from single or monodisciplinary research, and (2) to characterize IDR, i.e., begin to describe how it differs from other research. A peculiar population of “over‐cited” articles is defined by the Institute for Scientific Information's “Citation Classics.” A sample of 1981 classics (which appear weekly in Current Contents) was examined for suspected interdisciplinary (IDR) content and/or usage. Between 10 and 20% were identified as possibly IDR. A subsample of these was traced through SCI and JCR categories to construct 10‐year citation histories. Content analysis of subject category concentration was also performed. We conclude that citation of a classic follows no set pattern. Time‐ and category‐sensitive indicators are discussed. Copyright © 1984 Wiley Periodicals, Inc., A Wiley Company - Technological hazard
In: Science
Date: December 1983
- Interdisciplinary research: Current experience in policy and performance
In: Interdisciplinary Science Reviews [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1983
Synopsis of a Session at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Toronto, Canada, January 1981. Participating speakers were Alan L. Porter, Albert H. Teich, Dael Wolfle Herbert I. Fusfeld, Anthony R. Michaelis, Robert S. Cutler, Philip H. Birnbaum, Frederick A. Rossini, Daryl E. Chubin, Terry Connolly, Kenneth V. Anderson. © Wiley Heyden Ltd, 1983. - Science policy
In: Policy Studies Journal [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1983
- The ABCs of ABDs: A study of incomplete doctorates
In: Improving College and University Teaching [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1983
- 2004: A scenario of peer review in the future
In: Behavioral and Brain Sciences [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1982
- Physicists and the doctoral dissertation
In: American Journal of Physics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1982
This article is based on a recent study of 645 1969-1970 Ph.D. recipients from the disciplines of physics, electrical engineering, biochemistry, zoology, psychology, and sociology. It focuses on the 97 physicists in the sample, studying their personal characteristics, work histories, dissertation experiences and assessment of their worth, and early career productivity including publications and citations. In the process of analyzing the physicists' careers, it compares them as a group with the other disciplinary groups and the sample as a whole. There is general satisfaction with the dissertation experience and little inclination to change its structure. However, the data suggest certain areas where improvement is possible in the dissertation process. These include beginning the dissertation during course work, increasing the relevance and originality of the dissertation, and using the dissertation experience as an opportunity to begin learning research management. © 1982, American Association of Physics Teachers. All rights reserved. - Public Participation and Professionalism in Impact Assessment
In: Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1982
- SCIENCE INDICATORS 1978 - NATL-SCI-BOARD
In: SOCIAL INDICATORS RESEARCH
Date: 1982
- The doctoral dissertation in the biosciences
In: BioScience [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1982
- THE ROLE OF THE DISSERTATION IN SCIENTIFIC CAREERS
In: AMERICAN SCIENTIST [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1982
- Views: The Role of the Dissertation in Scientific Careers: The first decade of professional life offers insights into the effectiveness of the doctoral dissertation in scientific training
In: American Scientist [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1982
- Misleading indicators: The limitations of multiple linear regression in formulation of policy recommendations
In: Policy Sciences [Peer Reviewed]
Date: September 1981
Multiple linear regression is widely used in empirically-based policy analysis. The central argument of the present paper is that much of this use is inappropriate, not because of the multiple linear regression methodology, but because of the nature of the data used. Too often analysts are carried beyond justified inferences into assertions for which there is essentially no sound defense, leading to policy recommendations of dubious provenance. Four alternative classes of policy interpretations are posited: mere description of data sets, simple prediction, causal models, and causal predictive models. Policy analysis finds statements from the last kind most useful, while multiple linear regression analysis of passively observed data is best suited to supporting statements of the first kind. The paper examines the inferential logic and technical issues that arise as one moves through the four classes. The paper then considers the role multiple linear regression of passively observed data can properly play in policy analysis and suggests alternative approaches. © 1981 Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company. - Transit funding: Implications of federal aid strategies
In: Transportation [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 1981
Federal funding strategies greatly affect investment in urban transportation facilities in the United States. This analysis concentrates on the implications of varying federal aid matching requirements, structuring aid programs as categorical or block grants, and allo cating funds on a discretionary basis or according to formula. Toward this end the effects of recent federal transit aid arrangements are assessed. Increased federal matching share broadens program participation, especially among smaller cities. However, when offered a choice, communities' preference for more generous federal aid shares is tempered by their election of discretionary grants (e.g., Urban Mass Transportation Administration - UMTA - Section 3) instead of drawing on formula funds (e.g., UMTA Section 5 or highway fund transfers). Formula funds are easier to administer, distributed quite evenly in the UMTA case, and generally more suitable than discretionary funds except where expenditures are large relative to budgets. Categorical aid programs shift local priorities, and thus should be used with caution Overall, results suggest that one must begin with established transportation objectives against which to evaluate the effectiveness of funding arrangements. In particular, it is critical to make clear the rationale for federal involvement in funding specific programs. Four such federal funding intents are distinguished: compelling national interest, regional development, stimulation of recipient investment in the given program, or financial relief for the aid recipient. Conclusions are drawn as to the desirability of various funding policies according to such program intent. © 1981 Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company. - A possible difference in women’s aims in obtaining the PhD.
In: American Psychologist [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1981
- Career patterns of scientists: A case for complementary data
In: American Sociological Review [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1981
- Integrated impact assessment
In: Interdisciplinary Science Reviews [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1981
Impact assessment studies the effects on society of proposed projects, programs or policies. It is perhaps best known in the forms of technology assessment and environmental impact assessment. Here the institutionalization of impact assessment, the principal features of impact assessment and its performance are discussed, keynoting interdisciplinarity as a critical factor. Substantial progress in performance has occurred over the past decade, especially in environmental and social analyses, pointing to some critical issues for the decade ahead. Within studies, integration across disciplinary components, between contributions from professionals and parties-at-interest, and between producers and users must be improved. Across studies, practitioners of impact assessment need to intercommunicate to advance the state of their art. © 1981 Heyden & Son Ltd. - Interdisciplinary Integration Within Technology A ssessments
In: Science Communication [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1981
- Interdisciplinary Research: Performance and Policy Issues.
In: Journal of the Society of Research Administrators [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1981
- Interdisciplinary Research: Performance and Policy Issues.
In: Journal of the Society of Research Administrators [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1981
- THE WORK-ETHIC - AN IDEA WHOSE TIME HAS GONE
In: BUSINESS [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1981
- Transportation funding structures and policies
In: Transportation Research Part A: General [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1981
The transportation enterprise in the United States relies heavily on federal funding of highways, transit, and airports. Consideration of changes in federal funding policies over the past decade or so, and the effects of those policies, suggests that the way programs are financially structured can be critically important. The present analysis leads to recommendations concerning the selection of the federal matching ratio, tradeoffs between categorical and block programs, and the use of formula or discretionary allocations. It highlights the importance of ascertaining programmatic intent in establishing funding policies, as well as the need for sensitivity to the fiscal climate. © 1981. - Between disciplines [2]
In: Science
Date: December 1980
- A user-focused model for the utilization of evaluation
In: Evaluation and Program Planning [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1980
It is proposed that the present low level of utilization of evaluation findings is traceable in part to their failure to address directly the information needs of a clearly specified decision maker. An alternative model proceeding from such specification is proposed here, with evaluation closely interwoven with the on-going innovation process. The model suggests a number of implications for the organizational role of evalutors, for the design of evaluations, and for directions for methodological development. In particular, we suggest that evaluation designs be assessed against possible "threats to utility" as well as against the traditional "threads to validity.". © 1980. - AN ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL AIRPORT FUNDING POLICIES
In: Traffic Quarterly [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1980
- ASSESSMENT OF TECHNICAL DECISIONS - CASE STUDIES - BRAUN,E, COLLINGRIDGE,D, HINTON,K
In: TECHNOLOGY AND CULTURE
Date: 1980
- DOCTORAL DISSERTATION-HOW RELEVANT?
In: Engineering education [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1980
- Technology Assessment/Environmental Impact Assessment: Toward Integrated Impact Assessment
In: IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1980
After a decade of experience with technology assessment (TA), environmental impact assessment (EIA), and social impact assessment (SIA) (and newer variants of impact assessment), it is time for the practitioners to draw together to confront their common intellectual problems. Reflection on the state of the art of impact assessment suggests useful dimensions along which to consider assessment activities. Ten component tasks are identified to provide a basis for considering the adequacy of assessment performance. An overarching task, the need to Integrate component contributions from professionals of diverse disciplinary backgrounds, stands out as critical. In addition, the need to integrate professional with public contributions so as to achieve sound impact assessments attuned to concerns of the interested parties appears crucial. Validation of analytical techniques, evaluation of study approaches, and development of usable theory of sociotechnical change processes are essential to the further professionalization of practice. These issues warrant a prominent place in the agenda for integrated impact assessment in the 1980's. Copyright © 1980 by The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. - Women in Engineering: Recruitment and Retention.
In: Engineering Education [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1980
- Experimental technology assessment: Explorations in processes of interdisciplinary team research
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1979
Technology assessment (TA) is team research that entails the cooperative effort of professionals from diverse disciplines. Whether this effort can be truly integrated into an interdisciplinary assessment is problematic, based on analyses of 24 actual TAs. To probe the situational and process factors that impinge on this interdisciplinary research process, we have performed laboratory simulations on TA-like problems. By controlling several key factors, these sessions have yielded insights into small group interactions and offer suggestive evidence for the conduct of future TAs. In these exercises the role of expertise was downplayed as groups preferred to operate in a "common-group learning" mode; epistemological differences emerged in the form of a "pecking order" favoring more quantitative sciences; and performing the leadership role reduced an individual's intellectual contribution to the problem-solving process. These exploratory TA simulations suggest merit in further efforts at controlled study of complex interdisciplinary processes. © 1979. - Frameworks for integrating interdisciplinary research
In: Research Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1979
Interdisciplinary research can be defined by the presence of substantive, internalized linkages among component analyses. Three levels of integration of component analyses are defined. The weakest is associated with multidisciplinary research in which components stand on their own. Integration here involves editorial organization, consistent terminology, and concordant concepts. The strongest level involves a shared, over-arching theoretical framework which welds components into a unit. Most interdisciplinary research can realistically aspire only to an intermediate level of integration wherein disciplinary components serve as substantive inputs to each other. Attainment of well-integrated interdisciplinary research is a complex task. This study identifies four frameworks useful in integration based on a probe of 24 technology assessments. Common group learning generates a common intellectual property belonging to the research group. It yields well-integrated research, but often at the cost of a loss of depth of analysis. Formal modeling can structure interrelationships, and, thereby, serve as an integrating framework. Modeling is most applicable to well-specified problems, but it can contribute, in conjunction with other frameworks, to broader, policy-oriented studies as well. Negotiation among experts takes place at the common boundaries between component analyses as these substantively affect each other's findings. It preserves the full depth of expertise and can be used in broad-ranging studies. Integration by the project leader establishes one person as the sole repository of composite knowledge, obtained through one-to-one interactions with assorted experts. It is not well-suited to interdisciplinary research, except in small-scale studies. © 1979. - On the evaluation of assessment and assessments
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1979
- A comparison of the various ratings of psychology journals
In: American Psychologist [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 1978
Synthesizes the ratings of psychology journals conducted by A. R. Buss and J. R. McDermott (1976), D. Koulack and H. J. Keselman, J. R. Levin and T. R. Kratochwill (1976), K. C. Mace and H. D. Warner (1973), and M. J. White and K. G. White. Each ratings list provides information of a different sort, and they all underestimate the importance of specialty journals to psychology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved). - Flexiweek
In: Business Horizons [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1978
- The role of information in perpetuating urban highway dominance over transit
In: Urban Systems [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1978
The paper examines the role of technical information processing and production in the development of urban mass transit in the United States. In particular, evidence suggests that information processing ability in urbanized areas may be associated with obtaining aid and, hence, improving transit service and usage. © 1979. - A Framework for Comparison of Intensive and Special Probation Projects
In: International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1977
This paper presents a conceptual framework to consider the activities and outcomes of probation projects. It is based on twenty site visits at which probation staffs described how project activities interrelated to produce desired effects. Based upon comparative analysis of these projects, alternative probation strategies are contrasted in six areas: (1) caseload reduction as a means to increase contact time; (2) in-house versus out-house treatment services; (3) helping relationships and tightened surveillance for probationers; (4) ways to enhance community acceptance; (5) usefulness of attempting to change probationer attitudes versus behaviors; and (6) goals of reduced criminal activity during, versus after, probation. The analysis points up underlying assumptions of probation programs and leads to three recommendations. First, contact character is a more superior measure of probation intensity than is caseload reduction. Second, probation projects should prepare conceptual frameworks to better understand the relationship between project activities and desired outcomes, but they should not be subject to elaborate evaluation requirements. Third, multiple measures of criminal activity allow a more balanced appraisal than is possible with single measures such as revocation rate or recidivism. © 1977, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved. - Citation analysis: Queries and caveats
In: Social Studies of Science [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1977
- Evaluation designs for technology assessments and forecasts
In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1977
The worth of technology assessments and technological forecasts need not remain a matter of faith; indeed, it cannot. Evaluation of technology assessments and forecasts is indicated both to assess their effectiveness and to provide feedback useful for improving the state of the art. Drawing upon evaluation research, we present a range of alternative evaluation designs that fit into four general categories; pre-planned or post-hoc evaluations of single studies; pre-planned or post-hoc comparisons among multiple studies. We distinguish among three classes of performance objectives meriting evaluative attention: validity, utility, and advancement of the methodological art. For each objective we in turn consider pros and cons of several specific evaluation designs. We conclude with recommendations for two coordinated, but selective, evaluation programs, one focused on comparison among extrapolative forecasting techniques and one devoted to certain aspects of technology assessment methods and utilization. © 1977. - IMPACTS OF SNOW ENHANCEMENT - WEISBECKER,LW
In: TECHNOLOGY AND CULTURE
Date: 1976
- Review: The Impacts of Snow Enhancement, by Weisbecker, L.W.
In: Technology and Culture
Date: 1976
- Use lists with caution.
In: American Psychologist [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1976
- Utility of the doctoral dissertation.
In: American Psychologist [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1975
- A recovery system for hyperbaric xenon
In: Medical & Biological Engineering [Peer Reviewed]
Date: May 1974
- Effects of non-hydrogen-bonding anesthetics on memory in the chick
In: Behavioral Biology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1974
The effects of five non-hydrogen-bonding anesthetics (NHBA) upon memory processing were studied in the neonate chick (N = 1173), using a one-trial peck avoidance and a one-trial appetitive learning paradigm. No effects were observed with helium, nitrogen, or carbon dioxide, nor with hypoxia. Xenon induced a marginal amnesic effect and nitrous oxide induced a marginal enhancement. An environmental shift required to administer pressurized NHBA treatments (pressure to 9.4 atmospheres) after training reduced subsequent pecking responses at 3-hr and/or 24-hr testing. Results are discussed in light of reported findings and theoretical implications of the NHBA for memory research. © 1974 Academic Press, Inc. - An analytical review of the effects of non-hydrogen-bonding anesthetics on memory processing
In: Behavioral Biology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1972
The effects of non-hydrogen-bonding anesthetics on memory formation are evaluated with the aid of a quantitative literature analysis. A given agent effect on memory is a resultant of the variation of many parameters-particularly, concentration of inspired anesthetic gas, duration of administration, and time interval between training and anesthetic administration. The non-hydrogen-bonding anesthetics are generally found to be capable of inducing retrograde amnesia, but differences between the memory effects of particular agents (especially nitrous oxide, ether, and carbon dioxide) are marked. The possibility that these memory differences are consequent to an anesthetic dose-dependent pattern of CNS depression or excitation is discussed. © 1972 Academic Press, Inc. All rights reserved. - Effect of stressful physical illness on future time perspective
In: Journal of Clinical Psychology [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 1971
- Visualization of disciplinary profiles: Enhanced science overlay maps
In: Journal of Data and Information Science [Peer Reviewed]
Chapters
- Application of text-analytics in quantitative study of science and technology : advancement , challenges and future directions
In: Springer Handbook of Science and Technology Indicators
Date: 2018
- Lessons from 10 years of nanotechnology bibliometric analysis
In: Nanotechnology Environmental Health and Safety: Risks, Regulation, and Management (Third Edition) [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2018
- Visual analysis of patent data through global maps and overlays
In: Springer
Date: 2017
- Visual analysis of patent data through global maps and overlays
In: Current Challenges in Patent Information Retrieval [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2017
- Generating competitive technical intelligence using topical analysis, patent citation analysis, and term clumping analysis
In: Springer
Date: 2016
- Identifying targets for technology mergers and acquisitions using patent information and semantic analysis
In: Springer
Date: 2016
- Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery: Subsystems, Hot Topics and Future Innovation Pathways
Date: 2014
© 2014 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery (NEDD) systems attract attention as a key nano application area. As an emerging scientific and medical field, many researchers and investors want to understand the status and prospects of developments in this domain. Capturing the global developments of NEDD is a challenge, since it is a combination of various technology R and D lines, with a variety of application areas. To help address this challenge, a variety of publication and patent databases provide a reservoir of information on research activities that can be "data mined." The challenge is smart extraction of what is relevant, and how to discern relationships to inform R and D decisions. In this chapter we describe how to do such smart extraction and present a three step process: (1) to articulate the search strategy for the gathering of data, (2) the data capture and sensemaking (using the Web of Science and MEDLINE databases) and (3) transformation of these findings into a Technology Roadmap (TRM) tracking NEDD development. - A comparative analysis of China vs. US: Two important players in the nano-enhanced Drug Delivery (NEDD) race
Date: December 2013
With the global emphasis on the development of nanotechnology ('nano'), Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery ('NEDD') systems are rapidly emerging as a key nano application area. NEDD offers promise in addressing pharmaceutical industry challenges concerning solubility, cost-reduction, disease & organ targeting, and patent lifecycle extension. This study compares NEDD research patterns for the US vs. China by profiling data compiled by a multi-component search strategy in Web of Science. We present a range of analyses to address research activity trends, concentration differences, and collaboration networks corresponding to three characteristics of 'New and Emerging Science & Technologies,' for which NEDD represents a consequential case. Such 'Tech Mining' can reveal to what extent these two countries have developed competency in this high technology area and help to address a wide array of further technology policy and management questions concerning this important biomedical arena. Our further aim is to build a family of analytical tools to facilitate efforts to forecast innovation pathways. © 2013 PICMET. - Are applied science threads more monopolistic?
Date: December 2013
We analyze if we can identify applied research through it being more monopolistic than basic research. Focusing on micro-communities within a case technology, the dye-sensitized solar cell, we seek to identify market structures within these communities that correlate with how basic or applied their science is. Combining economic measures of competitiveness with a ranking scheme provided by the National Science Foundation we show that more competitive market structures are more basic - attracting more citations, whereas, more applied R&D tends to be more localized in fewer organizations, presumably with different motivations. These results are useful as we try to identify how a technology emerges to being a commercially viable technology. Although there has been an active discussion if the linear model of technological development holds true - to an extent, we would presume some that there should be applied research prior to commercial application. Identifying the structure of this research enables a more holistic portrait of the landscape of a technology. © 2013 PICMET. - Extending the FIP (Forecasting Innovation Pathways) approach through an automotive case analysis
Date: December 2013
The "FIP" approach seeks to Forecast Innovation Pathways for an emerging technology of interest. It does so by combining empirical "tech mining" analyses with expert opinion. Tech mining extracts intelligence from multiple sources, but especially through bibliometric and text analyses of thousands of records retrieved from global R&D publication, patent, and business/context databases. FIP blends expert opinion from multiple sources, but especially by convening a focused workshop. SKF conducted an FIP exercise on Hybrid & Electric Vehicles (HEVs) that presents special challenges. HEVs combine multiple sub-systems, advancing at different rates technologically, with complex technical and market infrastructures. Asian automotive production and markets appear vital for the future of HEVs, and various technologies & applications (e.g., two-wheelers) warrant tracking. Grappling with this complex innovation system helped extend the FIP approach. Enhancements included extending the previous innovation tiers framework to array multiple technological and contextual factors in conjunction. This is the first FIP workshop to split into small groups to address three priority market segments and three prime geographical regions, then regroup to review and develop consensus.Manifold factors influence HEV innovation paths, so technology delivery systems are more complex than those addressed in previous FIP studies. We reflect on FIP process development, with suggestions regarding scoping, identification of sub-systems, and possible opportunities to systematize certain analyses. © 2013 PICMET. - The role of text mining of patent in Mergers and Acquisitions
Date: December 2013
Technology strategy plays an increasingly important role in today's Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity, especially that aiming to obtain key technology capabilities. A big challenge that faces corporate managers and government policy makers is how to bring technology development prospects into play in order to help enterprises complement and strengthen their advantages. In this study, based on text mining of patents, we devise a method for extracting technology intelligence to facilitate M&A, focusing on potential targets by assessing technological synergy value for a firm. We present results pertaining to technology M&A in the field of numerical control systems in China. © 2013 PICMET. - Applications of nanotechnology to the brain and central nervous system
Date: 2013
- Tech mining for innovation management (Introduction, Special Issue)
Date: 2013
- Innovation Risk Path Assessing for a Newly Emerging Science and Technology: Illustrated for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
Date: 2012
- Text clumping for technical intelligence
Date: 2012
- Using Large-scale Databases to Understand the Trajectories of Emerging Technologies
In: Little by Little: Expansions of Nanoscience and Emerging Technologies [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2012
- Preconditions for Interdisciplinary Research
Date: October 2011
© 1990 by Oxford University Press, Inc. All rights reserved.Despite the constructive effects of a strong theoretical and conceptual basis for interdisciplinary research (IDR), no generally accepted framework has been formulated. Because of this, scholars have attempted to categorize the necessary prerequisites for the said type of study in two major divisions: external factors-which consist of problem features, reinforcement schedule, available and accessible resources, and organizational context; and internal elements-comprised of employee characteristics, management style, essential skills, project structure, and environment for group dynamics. This chapter discusses the implications of these conditions, along with their detailed description and use, to the generation of data, the analysis, and the overall success of interdisciplinary inquiries. Encountered problems are only the effects of insufficient principles and methods in employing an interdisciplinary technique to understand a specific phenomenon. - Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types
Date: December 2008
In June 2007, the European Parliament's Scientific Options Assessment (STOA) Panel celebrated its 20th anniversary with an exhibition at the Parliament's premises in Strasbourg. The opening ceremony included speeches by the Parliament's president, Hans-Gert Pöttering, and the European Commissioner responsible for Science and Research, Janez Potočnik. His predecessor, Philippe Busquin is now the chairman of the STOA panel which since his assumption of the chair has had a framework contract with a group of technology assessment institutions working for national or regional parliaments in Europe. This arrangement is leading to the production of a series of reports, based mainly on a review of existing literature and the involvement of experts. In particular M. Busquin, as chairman of the panel, has noted several times that such reports would also be of interest to national parliaments, notably those without their own capacities for technology assessment. In order to facilitate the necessary exchange, contacts have been established with the Directorate General Research of the European Commission, the organisation Busquin supervised for 5 years. While there is (no longer) any unit with explicit responsibility for technology assessment in DG Research, there is a Directorate with responsibility for, among other things, foresight. A meeting to sound out the feasibility of a Commission-funded project to disseminate findings for the STOA Panel included a discussion on the distinction between technology assessment and foresight, which finished with the conclusion that they overlap, although the two should not be totally confounded. © 2008 Springer Berlin Heidelberg. - New methodological developments in FTA
Date: December 2008
This chapter describes new methodological developments in FTA reported at both the First and Second FTA Seminars. We offer some perspective. This chapter is being prepared as part of the synthesis of knowledge gained especially from the Second Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) Seminar (2006). However, with respect to new methods, we incorporate considerable material from the First FTA Seminar (2004 EU-US Seminar) because its theme was new methods. We intend this chapter as an aid to the reader scanning for suitable technology intelligence, forecasting, assessment, roadmapping, or foresight tools. The foundation papers for the First FTA Seminar noted several important drivers that imply the need for new methods. Coates et al. (2001) observed that FTA had emerged from an extended dormancy with an upsurge in new forms and incipient new tools in the 1990's. They perceived several potent changes and challenges for FTA: 1. Changes in the nature of technological change with increasingly science-based innovation 2. Shift in the prime drivers of technological innovation from the more narrowly technical concerns of Soviet-American Cold War military systems to industrial competitiveness concerns requiring inclusion of socio-economic contextual influences 3. Renewed attention to societal outcomes (and sustainability) 4. Opportunities to exploit electronic information resources to enrich FTA 5. Better capabilities to address complexity in technological innovation © 2008 Springer Berlin Heidelberg. - Fitting Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Methods to Study Types
Date: 2008
- New Methodological Developments in FTA
Date: 2008
- Tech Mining: Multiple Ways to Exploit Science, Technology & Information Resources.
Date: 2008
- Future-oriented Technology Analyses: The Literature and Its Disciplines
Date: 2007
- Patent profiling for competitive advantage
Date: 2004
- Making Technology Foresight (and Systems Studies?) Useful.
Date: 2001
- Technology Forecasting
Date: 1998
- The information revolution: An introduction
Date: September 1996
- Crossdisciplinarity in the Biomedical Sciences: A preliminary Analysis of Anatomy
Date: 1984
- Assessing the Social Impacts of New Technologies
Date: 1983
- Technological Innovation and Its Assessment
Date: 1983
- Complexity, Causality, Caveats: Methodological Findings of A Retrospective Assessment
Date: 1978
- The management of interdisciplinary, policy-related research
Date: 1978
Conferences
- “Tech Emergence” Indicators – to inform Management of Technology
In: Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)
Date: 2017
- Forecasting Innovation Pathways: The case of big data
In: Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)
Date: 2016
- Identifying target for technology mergers and acquisitions using patent information and semantic analysis
Date: September 2015
© 2014 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology.Technology plays an increasingly important role in today's enterprise competition. Technology mergers and acquisitions (Tech M&A), as an effective way to acquire external technology resources rapidly, have attracted attention from researchers because of their potential realization of value through synergy. A big challenge that faces corporate managers and government policy makers is how to identify the appropriate target to support effective technology integration. In this study, we develop a model of target selection of Tech M&A from the perspective of technology relatedness and R&D capability. We present the results relating to M&A in the field of cloud computing in China. - Meta Data: Big Data Research Evolving across Disciplines, Players, and Topics
Date: August 2015
© 2015 IEEE.We present a meta-Analysis of Big Data research activity since 2009. Our purpose here is to present 'tech mining' (bibliometric and text analyses of research publication abstract record sets) to provide a research landscape of who is doing what, where, and when. Our larger purpose is to help Forecast Innovation Pathways for big data & analytics over the coming decade. We download 7006 research publication abstracts from Web of Science resulting from a search algorithm devised to recall a high percentage of core Big Data research and a moderate percentage of peripherally related research (fair recall). We find interesting engagement of different disciplines in Big Data over time. On a national level, the USA and China dominate these fundamental research publications to a striking degree. Mapping topics presents interesting evidence on what topics are emerging in this dynamic field. - A scientometric comparative study of single-walled and multi-walled carbon nanotubes research
Date: 2015
In the present study, we aim to quantitatively investigate and compare the intellectual landscapes of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) research between 2000 and 2014. The overall intellectual structure of these fields is illustrated by emerging trends of bursting keywords and thematic concentrations of co-cited references. This study is based on two sets of bibliographic records retrieved from the Web of Science database. The SWCNTs dataset contains 18,700 original research and review articles. The MWCNTs dataset, consisting of 23,584 records, is also collected from the database. We find that both domains have scrutinized chemical concepts which underlie the properties of the materials. Recent thematic trends show that MWCNTs research focuses on the improvement of the material while SWCNTs research lays more emphasis on their applications. In conclusion, it is argued that SWCNTs and MWCNTs have co-evolved. At the same time, both fields are distinctively diverging with their own scientific concerns. - Tracing Technology Evolution Pathways by Combining Tech Mining and Patent Citation Analysis
Date: 2015
- Evaluating the innovation performance of technology mergers and acquisitions in the equipment manufacturing industry
Date: 2014
© 2014 PICMET.Technology M&A has been an important way for companies acquiring knowledge resources to achieve rapid development externally, especially that aiming to obtain key technology capabilities. A big challenge that faces corporate managers and government policy makers is how to evaluate the innovation performance of post acquisition effectively. In this study, based on innovation process, we devise a method to evaluate the performance of the Tech M&A from the perspective of the technological innovation process, including R&D, patent and product sales. We present results in the numerical control machine tool industry in China. - Science, Technology & Innovation Textual Data-Oriented Topic Analysis and Forecasting: Methodology and A Case Study
Date: 2014
- A research profile for a promising emerging industry - Nano-enabled drug delivery
Date: December 2013
- How to combine term clumping and technology roadmapping for newly emerging science & technology competitive intelligence: The semantic triz tool and case study
Date: December 2013
Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI) addresses the landscape of both opportunities and competition for emerging technologies as the boom of Newly Emerging Science & Technology (NEST) - characterized by a challenging combination of great uncertainty and great potential - has become a significant feature of the globalized world. We have been focusing on the construction of a "NEST Competitive Intelligence" methodology, which blends bibliometric and text mining methods to explore key technological system components, current R&D emphases, and key players for a particular NEST. As an important part of these studies, this paper emphasizes the semantic TRIZ approach as a useful tool to represent "Term Clumping" results and apply them to Technology Roadmapping (TRM), with the help of semantic Problem & Solution (P&S) patterns. A greater challenge lies in the attempt to extend our approach into NEST Competitive Intelligence studies by using both inductive and purposive bibliometric approaches. Finally, an empirical study for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs) is used to demonstrate these analyses. © AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH Vienna 2013. - Measuring the extent to which a research domain is self-contained
Date: December 2013
For several years we have been working to measure cross-disciplinarity, especially trying to determine interdisciplinary integration of diverse knowledge. Existing indicators, particularly our own Integration and Diffusion scores, speak to disciplinary engagement, but not directly to whether knowledge is being transferred from areas heretofore not wellconnected to a research domain. This paper introduces simple metrics that gauge 1) the extent to which a research domain references papers generated within that domain vs. outside publications, and 2) the extent to which a domain's publications are cited within itself vs. outside. We address three emerging technologies as case research domains - Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Hybrid & Electric Vehicles, and Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells. We first tabulate and map their disciplinary locations based on Web of Science Categories. We then calculate the new metrics to offer additional perspectives on knowledge diffusion. © AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH Vienna 2013. - Nano-enhanced drug delivery (nedd) research pattern for two leading countries: US and China
Date: December 2013
Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery ("NEDD") systems are rapidly emerging as a key nano application area. NEDD offers promise in addressing pharmaceutical industry challenges concerning solubility, cost-reduction, disease & organ targeting, and patent lifecycle extension. This study compares NEDD research patterns for the US vs. China by profiling data compiled by a multi-component search strategy in Web of Science. We present a range of analyses to address research activity trends, concentration differences, and collaboration networks corresponding to three characteristics of "New and Emerging Science & Technologies," for which NEDD represents a consequential case. It can help researchers and research managers understand the current status and future prospects of an emerging scientific or medical field. Such profiling of database search results can offer global insights to help discern main research trajectories, key players, and promising new shoots. © AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH Vienna 2013. - Analyzing research publication patterns to gauge future innovation pathways for Nano- Enabled Drug Delivery.
Date: 2013
- Analyzing research publication patterns to gauge future innovation pathways for nano-enabled drug delivery
Date: 2013
- Precision and recall in classifying scientific literature: comparing topic modeling to Kernel-based spectral clustering
Date: 2013
- Comparing methods to extract technical content for technological intelligence
Date: November 2012
We are developing indicators for the emergence of science and technology (S&T) topics. We are targeting various S&T information resources, including metadata (i.e., bibliographic information) and full text. We explore alternative text analysis approaches - principal components analysis (PCA) and topic modeling - to extract technical topic information. We analyze the topical content to pursue potential applications and innovation pathways. In this presentation we compare alternative ways of consolidating messy sets of key terms [e.g., using Natural Language Processing (NLP) on abstracts and titles, together with various keyword sets]. Our process includes combinations of stopword removal, fuzzy term matching, association rules, and tf-idf weighting. We compare PCA results to topic modeling results. Our key test set consists of 4104 Web of Science records on Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs). Results suggest good potential to enhance our technical intelligence payoffs from database searches on topics of interest. © 2012 IEEE. - Early commercialization pattern profiling: Nano-enhanced biosensors
Date: November 2012
Recently, nano-enhanced biosensors (NBS) have attracted considerable attention. Not only their R&D status, but also their commercialization potentials, hold appeal for corporations and government policy makers. We are studying company involvement in NBS R&D through publication and patent records to capture the early commercialization patterns. On the one hand, we compare the leading countries in profiling the cluster of commercial activities. We also explore future prospects by positing multiple innovation pathways for NBS. These help to elucidate promising targets, key players, pivotal technology developments on a critical path, and impediments. Taken together, these Future-Oriented Technology Analyses empower the management of emerging technologies. © 2012 PICMET (Portland Intl conf on Manage. - Emergence as a conceptual framework for understanding scientific and technological progress
Date: November 2012
The global science, technology and innovation (STI) system is characterized by some researchers as a complex adaptive system (e.g. Heimricks, 2009). Scientific and technological progress entails both evolutionary and revolutionary change, with a high degree of non-linearity and unpredictability. In the terms of complexity science, this progress is emergentit defies a reductionist approach to characterizing the phenomenon. We discuss the properties associated with emergent behavior (Goldstein, 1999; Deguet et al., 2002), and apply them to an integrative framework for describing activities in scientific research and technological development. We further elaborate on this framework to suggest the developments and events in the global STI system which may be hallmarks of technical emergence, defined as the set of properties and phenomena observed in the development of a concept with potential scientific and technological significance. The conceptual framework provides a useful tool for focusing further research on specific dynamics of scientific and technological activity. © 2012 IEEE. - PICMET empirically: Tracking 14 Management of Technology topics
Date: November 2012
Tech Mining can help ascertain whats happening in Management of Technology (MOT). Previous analyses of PICMET and IAMOT content helped identify the emergence of hot topics in the field and the leading research centers associated with those. The present profile helps assess research priorities and opportunities in MOT. This can help you position your work; identify leaders on particular topics, perhaps as potential collaborators; and anticipate topics of special promise to pursue. © 2012 IEEE. - An Inductive Method for “Term Clumping”: A Case Study on Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
Date: May 2012
- A hybrid innovation management model for emerging technology: Bibliometrics, qualitative methodology, and empirical study
Date: 2012
- Discovering emerging technology trends: with TRIZ and technology road mapping
Date: 2012
- S&T-Function-Application Cross-charting: An approach to visualize the bridges across the gap between R&D and applications
Date: 2012
- Text mining to identify topical emergence: Case study on management of technology
Date: 2012
- Tracing promising nanotechnologies for diseases prevalent in ageing populations
Date: 2012
- Vector platforms for nano-enhanced drug delivery: capturing innovation pathways in the making
Date: 2012
- Bibliometric discovery of innovation and commercialization pathways in nanotechnology
Date: October 2011
Nanotechnology is widely seen as the source of the next industrial revolution. As a result, national governments have made short-term stimulus investments in nanoscience in the hopes of achieving long-lasting economic and societal benefits. Despite the stimulus funding, the scale and timing of new nanotechnology innovations are far from clear. Part of the problem stems from the fact that nanoscience is often far upstream of potential societal application. But the issue is more complex given the evidently complex coupling of science, technology and commercialization. Nanotechnology itself is often presented as an exemplar of a new class of strategic research initiatives. In this paper we characterize nanotechnology commercialization in a well-recognized database of nanotechnology research. Contributions are made to the ongoing effort to define, and refine, the relevant knowledge base for nano-science and technology. The effort further requires novel techniques for isolating commercially-relevant research in large databases of science. © 2011 IEEE. - "Up-to-down" Science & Technology planning: a new approach based on bibliometrics and technology roadmapping
Date: 2011
- A Technology Opportunities Analysis Model: Applied to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells for China
Date: 2011
- Assessing the human and social dynamics program—exceptional cross-disciplinarity
Date: 2011
- Diffusion Score: Introducing a Counterpart to the Integration Score
Date: 2011
- Measuring the Interdisciplinarity of Nano-Biosensor Research based on Citation Analysis
Date: 2011
- Measuring the Interdisciplinarity of Nano-Biosensor Research based on Citation Analysis
Date: 2011
- The Use of IDR Metrics to Chart Research Trajectories at the Micro Level
Date: 2011
- Profiling Chinese nano-biomedical science in a decade
Date: December 2010
This paper analyzes nano-biomedical science in China for the period 2000-2009 via bibliometrics and tech mining. The article identifies trends over time, interdisciplinary of nano-biomedical science and other subjects, journals in which Chinese authors publish their research, major institutional contributions, and international collaborators and collaboration networks in this field. This paper finds that Chinese NBMS has grown fast in the last ten years, and has the growth potential via the trend analysis; China has been one of the cores in NBMS, collaborating with other prolific countries; Chinese Academy Sciences, Zhejing university, Tsing Hua university, and Fudan University occupy the leading positions in the field of NBMS in China; but the distribution of the research centers is separated; NBMS is interacted with other disciplines like chemistry and physics according to science overlay maps. ©2010 IEEE. - Tracking the Integration and Diffusion of Knowledge: The Case of Nanotechnology Risk Research
Date: September 2010
- The use of global maps of science in management and policy contexts
Date: 2010
- A systematic technology forecasting approach for new and emerging science and technology: Case study of nano-enhanced biosensors
Date: December 2009
This paper addresses the topic of anticipating likely development paths for a particular "New and Emerging Science & Technology" (NES&T). Characteristics of NES&T --technological uncertainty and contextual dynamics -- pose challenges for technology management and forecasting practices. Researchers, technologists, R&D managers, staff in funding agencies and policy makers "need to know" future prospects. This requires better ways to capture NES&T development patterns, within their socio-economic context, as well as likely innovation opportunities. A new technology forecasting framework for NES&Ts is presented, supported by a case study of nano-enhanced biosensors. - Profiling research patterns for a new and emerging science and technology: Dye-sensitized solar cells
Date: December 2009
This paper explores a framework to profile research patterns for New and Emerging Science and Technology (NES&T), and applies it to Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSC), a promising NES&T. Such work is done via "tech mining" to capture key technological attributes, leading actors, and networks. The result shows that DSSC research is an interdisciplinary field, with increasing cooperation among different levels. Japan is notable not only in the number of papers but also for considerable involvement of the corporate sector in research. In contrast, China, as the second country in quantity, shows an obvious imbalance with few industrially associated authors, limited international cooperation, and low citations. Research profiling, as illustrated here, can inform technology strategies, and science and technology policies. - Locating Nanotechnology Among the Disciplines
Date: 2009
- Nanotechnology enhanced thin-film solar cells: analysis of global research activities with future prospects
Date: 2009
- Overlay Maps of Science: a New Tool for Research Policy
Date: 2009
- Nano Social Science: An Emerging Specialization?
Date: 2008
- Tech Mining: A Key Tool to Bolster Innovation
Date: 2008
- The cognitive geography of nanotechnologies: locating nano-research in the map of science
Date: 2008
- Tech mining to accelerate radical innovation
Date: December 2007
Technology managers' track record in managing incremental innovations is uneven. They confront notably more difficult challenges in managing radical innovation processes due to the greater complexities and uncertainties. S-curve characterizations of the respective incremental and radical innovation processes highlight the critical challenges in generating effective intelligence upon which to base managerial decisions. I distinguish six information resources for "ARTIP" -Accelerated, Radical Technical Intelligence Processes. This paper only treats the first of these - Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) information consolidated in publicly accessible databases. Drawing an analogy to geographical mapping, to know where one is going, I suggest we want to map where a particular radical innovation could be heading to help decide how our organization might best participate. "Technology Delivery System" mapping of the key players, resources, barriers, and opportunities helps understand current issues and prospects [4, 8]. New scenario approaches, particularly one called "Multi-Path Mapping" provide a way to forecast alternative development pathways over the next 5-10 years [7]. The key is to recognize various emerging technological capabilities, alternative platforms that could coalesce such capabilities, and alternative application types. Once such mapping has been initiated, one seeks intelligence to enable sound management - ARTIP. Our framework for this is called "Tech Management" [1]. This purports to augment expert opinion based knowledge with empirically derived knowledge. It does so by beginning with the technology management issues, thence specifying particular questions to be answered. Only then do we turn to the information resources to generate "innovation indicators"" that speak to those questions. I overview how software tools (ours is VantagePoint -//www.theVantagePoint.com) are applied to ST&I database search results at three levels. Lists tally the extent of activity. Matrices relate that activity - e.g., to show the leading R&D organizations' relative emphases. Maps help recognize relationships - e.g., which inventors collaborate, to generate "knowledge maps" of an organization's capabilities. These manipulations enable us to answer the basic reporter's questions of "who, what, when, and where?" Results can be composed into "one-pagers" - i.e., carefully selected visual representations of the pertinent innovation indicators to answer a prime question. An organization can determine which representations serve its ongoing business decision processes (e.g., Stage-gate processes) [2]. The last part of the paper illustrates Tech Mining applications in the "nano" arena. These derive largely from work at Georgia Tech to build a substantial project dataset of nano-related articles and patents since 1990. As of early 2007, we have over 1,000,000 paper abstract records and some 60,000 international patent families. Analyses continue [6]. The first cases illustrate broad "research landscaping" [5]. We show different ways to discern patterns across the global R&D enterprise. For ARTIP, such analyses typically pursue a mid-level of detail. Overall "nano trends" make almost no sense as the field is a general purpose technology with diffuse elements [9]. Rather, we need to parse these data to uncover technological thrusts that could lead to emergent capabilities of interest. The three illustrations show: □ Global patenting trends broken out by major topical area □ Global map showing metropolitan patenting concentrations □ Breakouts of nano patenting by objectives: raw materials, intermediates, or final products [1] These results suggest the potentials of analytical probing. For instance, suppose one of the intermediate areas (e.g., a novel catalytic capability) caught the ARTIP analyst's attention. This prompts detailed recovery of related activity to spotlight who (organizations, researchers) is doing what (e.g., alternative formulations, possible adaptations) toward what ends (e.g., application families, industrial sectors). Further discovery pursues second-order potentials (e.g., what problems show parallels that we might stretch this novel capability to resolve?) [3]. The second set of cases illustrates narrow "zoom-in," targeting a particular technical area or a particular organization. This case examines nano research at Purdue University. [This was generated in support of a workshop conducted by North Carolina State colleagues to facilitate tech transfer between academic research and industrial commercialization interests - see Note 2.] We located over 2000 nano publications with Purdue authors. We explored these to help the workshop organizers identify themes and engage key players. The first illustration shows a way to map research networks based on collaboration patterns. VantagePoint can also map researcher networks based on shared topical interests or consolidate topical themes [7]. The second illustration shows a custom profile generated to break out indicators pertinent to the question at hand. Here we see leading Purdue nano researchers, what percentage of their papers were authored in the recent 4 year period, and two measures of their topical emphases. In summary, Tech Mining provides vital intelligence to help manage radical innovation processes. It helps identify technical thrusts. Innovation mapping extend these to suggest promising developmental paths forward. Combined, this strategic intelligence can aid managers accelerate radical innovation for their organization. © 2007 PICMET. - Object-oriented data structure for text association rule mining
Date: 2007
- Defining the nanotechnology domain in a real time technology assessment
Date: 2006
- Mining conference proceedings for corporate technology knowledge management
Date: December 2005
An organization's knowledge gained through technical conference attendance is generally isolated to the individual(s) attending the event. The aggregate corporate knowledge is extremely limited, unless the organization institutes a process to document and transfer that knowledge to the organization. Even if such a process exists, the knowledge gains are limited to the experiences and communication skills of the individuals attending the conference. Many conference proceedings are now published and provided to attendees in electronic format, such as on CD-ROM and/or published on the internet, such as IEEE conference proceedings listed at http://www.computer.ora/proceedings/proceed_a- h.htm. These proceedings provide a rich repository that can be mined. Paper abstract compilations reflect "hot topics," as defined by the researchers in the field, and delineate the technical approaches being applied. R&D profiling can more fully exploit recorded conference proceedings' research to enhance corporate knowledge. This paper illustrates the potential in profiling conference proceedings through use of WebQL information retrieval and TechOasis (VantagePoint) text mining software. It shows how tracking research patterns and changes over a sequence of conferences can illuminate R&D trends, map dominant issues, and spotlight key research organizations. - A state-of-the-art of content analysis. Sponsored by SIG IAE, SIG ALP
Date: October 2005
- Rapid technology intelligence process.
Date: 2005
- Mining PICMET: 1997-2003 Papers Help You Track Management of Technology Developments
Date: December 2003
PICMET is providing the abstracts from 1997, 1999, 2001, and 2003 to enable you to "text mine" the contents of these four conferences. Using VantagePoint Reader software (available to PICMET attendees at no charge) allows you to locate specific research abstracts of interest. Text mining helps ascertain "who's doing what, when?" The software also enables you to see larger patterns in Management of Technology (MOT) research. - Requirements-based knowledge discovery for technology management
Date: December 2002
The requirement-based knowledge discovery for technology management is discussed. The electronic abstract databases on research and development (R&D), which provides a critical set of information resources for technological intelligence is also presented. The information-mining issues, focusing on a realistic technology management domain-advanced materials for use in automotive applications are analyzed. - Requirements-based knowledge discovery for technology management
Date: 2001
- Matching Information Products to Technology Management Processes
Date: 2000
- Why don’t technology managers want our knowledge
Date: 2000
- Engineering and technology management: intelligent or otherwise?
Date: 1999
- Mining foreign language information resources
Date: 1999
- Related problems of knowledge discovery
Date: 1999
- Text Mining in a Foreign Language
Date: 1999
- National indicators of technology-based competitiveness: selected results from 1996
Date: 1997
- Technology opportunities analysis for Malaysia
Date: 1997
- TOAS intelligence mining; Analysis of natural language processing and computational linguistics
Date: 1997
© Springer-Vertag Berlin Heidelberg 1997.The Technology Opportunities Analysis System (TOAS), being developed under a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) project, enables mining of text files using bibliometrics. TOAS, a software system, extracts useful information from literature abstract files, which have identified fields that repeat in each abstract record of specific databases, such as Engineering Index (ENGI), INSPEC, Business Index, U.S. Patents, and the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) Research Reports. The TOAS applies various technologies, which include natural language processing (NLP), computational linguistics (CL), fuzzy analysis, latent semantic indexing, and principle components analysis (PCA). This software system combines simple operations (i.e., listing, counting, list comparisons and sorting of search term retrieved consolidated records' field results) with complex matrix manipulations, statistical inference and artificial intelligence approaches to reveal patterns and provide insights from large amounts of information, primarily related to technology-oriented management issues. The authors apply the TOAS tool on its own root technologies, NLP and computational linguistics—two apparently synonymous terms. These terms, however, when used in a literature search of the same abstract databases, ENGI and INSPEC, provide distinctly different search results with only 10% to 25% search result abstract records overlap. This paper introduces TOAS, summarizes analyses comparing NLP and CL, and then discusses the underlying development implications. - NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS IN HIGH TECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURING.
Date: 1988
This paper reports the findings of a research project to identify key factors associated with a nation's ability to become competitive in high technology manufacturing and marketing. The project developed a conceptual model for a 'Technology Delivery System,' distinguishing four sets of contributing factors: (1) national commitment to technology-based development, (2) socioeconomic infrastructure, (3) technological infrastructure, and (4) productive capacity. The model was tested against indicators of competitiveness in high technology, including world market share, emphasis on high technology products among exports, and recent changes in market share. Results suggest that national orientation and socioeconomic infrastructure can overcome limitations in technological infrastructure. - MICROCOMPUTER STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Date: 1984
Working Papers
- A Taxonomy of Serial Innovators
Date: August 2006
- High tech indicators: technology-based competitiveness of 33 nations
Date: 2006
- High-tech indicators: technology-based competitiveness of 33 nations, 2005 final report
Date: 2006
- High-tech indicators: technology-based competitiveness of 33 nations, 2005 final report
Date: 2006
- Identification of the technology commercialization strategies of high-tech small firms
Date: 2006
- KISTI: Emerging technology assessment and training
Date: 2005
- Review and Revision of High Tech Indicators 2003
Date: 2002
- Indicators of Technology-based Competitiveness: Incorporating Recent Changes in the Concept," High-technology," and in Data Availability Final Report
Date: 2001
- Measuring scientific output: a collective biography approach
Date: February 1985
- INDICATORS OF INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH: A BLUEPRINT FOR ANALYSIS
Date: 1983
- A Crossdisciplinary Assessment of the Role of the Doctoral Dissertation in Career Productivity, report to the National Science Foundation, Division of Science Resource Studies
Date: 1981
- Effects of Federal Transportation Funding Policies and Structures: Overview
Date: 1979
- Women in Engineering: Policy Recommendations for Recruitment and Retention in Undergraduate Programs
Date: 1978
Other Publications
- Prevention and Reversal of Alzheimer’s Disease
Date: 2017
- Assessing the Interdisciplinarity and Research Networking Impacts of the Human and Social Dynamics (“HSD”) Priority Area Program
In: Annual and Final Reports to the National Science Foundation
Date: 2013
- Assessing the Interdisciplinarity and Research Networking Impacts of the Human and Social Dynamics (“HSD”) Priority Area Program
In: Annual and Final Reports to the National Science Foundation
Date: 2013
- Assessing the Interdisciplinarity and Research Networking Impacts of the Human and Social Dynamics (“HSD”) Priority Area Program
In: Annual and Final Reports to the National Science Foundation
Date: 2013
- Assessing the Interdisciplinarity and Research Networking Impacts of the Human and Social Dynamics (“HSD”) Priority Area Program
In: Annual and Final Reports to the National Science Foundation
Date: 2013
- Assessing the Interdisciplinarity and Research Networking Impacts of the Human and Social Dynamics (“HSD”) Priority Area Program
In: Annual and Final Reports to the National Science Foundation
Date: 2013
- Assessing the Interdisciplinarity and Research Networking Impacts of the Human and Social Dynamics (“HSD”) Priority Area Program
In: Annual and Final Reports to the National Science Foundation
Date: 2013
- Interdisciplinary Networking Impact of the Research Coordination Network (RCN) program
In: Annual Report to the National Science Foundation
Date: 2010
- Measuring and Tracking Research Knowledge Integration
In: Annual Report to the National Science Foundation
Date: 2010
- The Use of Computers in Industrial Research and Development: An Analysis of the Industrial Research Institute Survey
Date: 1985
- Science Indicators 1978
Date: 1982
- Frameworks and factors affecting integration within technology assessments. Executive summary(study team interactions)[Final Report]
Date: 1978
- INTENSIVE SPECIAL PROBATION PROJECTS-NATIONAL EVALUATION PROGRAM-PHASE 1-SUMMARY REPORT
Date: 1977
- Evaluating State Implementation of Federal Highway Policy: Methods and Findings, Main Report
Date: 1976