Valerie Thomas
Anderson Interface Chair of Natural Systems
- Climate and Energy Policy Laboratory
- School of Public Policy
- ADVANCE IAC
- Technology Policy and Assessment Center
Overview
Valerie Thomas is the Anderson Interface Chair of Natural Systems, with a joint appointment in the School of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the School of Public Policy. Her research interests span energy systems, sustainability, industrial ecology, technology assessment, international security, and science and technology policy. Current research projects include low carbon freight transportation systems, environmental impacts of food systems, and energy development in Africa. Thomas received a B. A. in physics from Swarthmore College and a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Cornell University. She was a post-doctoral Research Fellow at the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, and then a Research Scientist at Princeton University, in the Princeton Environmental Institute and in the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, and was a Lecturer in the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. In 2004-05, Thomas was the American Physical Society Congressional Science Fellow. Thomas is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a Fellow of the American Physical Society. She has served as a member of the US EPA Science Advisory Board, and as a member of the USDA/DOE Biomass R&D Technical Advisory Committee.
- PhD, Physics, Cornell University
- BA, Physics, Swarthmore College
Distinctions:
- Georgia Tech Class of 1934 Outstanding Interdisciplinary Award, 2018
- Fellow, AAAS
- Fellow, American Physical Society
Interests
- Agriculture, Health, and the Environment
- Clean Energy
- Climate Change Mitigation
- Energy Efficiency
- Energy, Climate and Environmental Policy
- Global Energy Security
- Global Nuclear Security
- Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy
- Transportation
Focuses:
- Africa (Sub-Saharan)
- Middle East
- United States
- United States - Georgia
- United States - Southeast
- Energy
- Environment
- Environmental Performance
- Food Systems
- National Security
- Science and Technology
- Sustainability
Courses
- PHIL-6000: Responsible Conduct-Res
- PUBP-6701: Energy Technol & Policy
Publications
Recent Publications
Journal Articles
- The statistical relationship between economic growth and total energy use: Evidence from panel co-integration and Granger-causality investigation of SSA countries
In: International J. Energy Economics and Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2022
- Incorporating New Technologies in EEIO Models
In: Applied Sciences
Date: 2022
- Cultural norms to support gender equity in energy development: Grounding the productive use agenda in Rwanda
In: Energy Research and Social Science [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2022
- Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plants Have Lower Environmental Impact than Conventional Combined Heat and Power for Commercial Buildings
In: Envir. Sci. Technol. [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2021
- The Impact of Development Priorities on Power System Expansion Planning in Sub-Saharan Africa
In: Energy Systems [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2021
All Publications
Books
- Industrial Ecology and Global Change
Date: 1994
Journal Articles
- Cultural norms to support gender equity in energy development: Grounding the productive use agenda in Rwanda
In: Energy Research and Social Science [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2022
- Incorporating New Technologies in EEIO Models
In: Applied Sciences
Date: 2022
- The statistical relationship between economic growth and total energy use: Evidence from panel co-integration and Granger-causality investigation of SSA countries
In: International J. Energy Economics and Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2022
- Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plants Have Lower Environmental Impact than Conventional Combined Heat and Power for Commercial Buildings
In: Envir. Sci. Technol. [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2021
- The Impact of Development Priorities on Power System Expansion Planning in Sub-Saharan Africa
In: Energy Systems [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2021
- Greenhouse gas impact of algal bio-crude production for a range of CO2 supply scenarios
In: Applied Sciences [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2021
- The Mining and Technology Industries as Catalysts for Sustainable Energy Development
In: Sustainability [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2020
- Recent Advancements of Plant-based Natural Fiber-Reinforced Composites and Their Applications
In: Composites Part B
Date: November 2020
- A Framework for the Resilience Analysis of Electric Infrastructure Systems Including Temporary Generation Systems
In: Reliability Engineering and System Safety [Peer Reviewed]
Date: October 2020
- Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions for an Ethanol Production Process Based on Genetically Modified Cyanobacteria: CO2 Sourcing Options
In: Biofuels, Bioproducts & Bioprocesses
Date: July 2020
- Similarities in Recalcitrant Structures of Industrial Non-kraft and Kraft Lignin
In: ChemSusChem
Date: June 2020
- Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Different CO2 Supply Options for an Algal Biorefinery.
In: Journal of CO2 Utilization [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2020
- Unpacking Ecological Stress from Economic Activities for Sustainability and Resource Optimization in Sub-Saharan Africa
In: Sustainability [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2020
- The Mining and Technology Industries as Catalysts for Sustainable Energy Development
In: Sustainability
Date: 2020
- Why have voluntary time-of-use tariffs fallen short in the residential sector?
In: Production and Operations Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: October 2019
- Life cycle analysis of alternative fibers for paper
In: J. Advanced Manufacturing and Processing [Peer Reviewed]
Date: July 2019
- Unravelling Green Information Technology Systems as a Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Game-Changer
In: Administrative Sciences [Peer Reviewed]
Date: June 2019
- Optimizing Wind Farm Siting to Reduce Power System Impacts of Wind Variability
In: Wind Energy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2019
- Social enterprise factory location and allocation model: Small scale manufacturing for East Africa
In: Socio-Economic Planning Sciences [Peer Reviewed]
Date: March 2019
- The Economic and Environmental Performance of Biomass Power as an Intermediate Resource for Power Production
In: Utilities Policy [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2019
Electricity powered by biomass is expanding. We examine four recent biopower plants and global benchmarks to assess their overall performance, confirming the characterization of biomass as an “intermediate” resource for power production. Electricity from biomass is more expensive than energy efficiency, natural gas, wind, or solar but substantially less expensive than new coal or nuclear plants. Compared to coal and natural gas per MWh produced, the NOx and SO2 emissions of biopower are also intermediate. We document that current investments in biopower can be attributed to an array of stakeholder value propositions extending beyond basic economic and environmental metrics.
- Infrastructure Ecology: An Evolving Paradigm for Sustainable Urban Development
In: Journal of Cleaner Production [Peer Reviewed]
Date: October 2017
Increasing urbanization places cities at the forefront of achieving global sustainability. For cities to become more sustainable, however, the infrastructure on which they rely must also become more productive, efficient and resilient. Unfortunately the current paradigm of urban infrastructure development is fragmented in approach lacking a systems perspective. Urban infrastructure systems are analogous to ecological systems because they are interconnected, complex and adaptive components that exchange material, information and energy among themselves and to and from the environment, and exhibit characteristic scaling properties that can be expressed by Zipf's Law. Analyzing them together as a whole, as one would do for an ecological system, provides a better understanding about their dynamics and interactions, and enables system-level optimization. The adoption of this “infrastructure ecology” approach will result in urban (re)development that requires lower investment of financial and natural resources to build and maintain, is more sustainable (e.g. uses less materials and energy and generates less waste) and resilient, and enables a greater and more equitable opportunities for the creation of wealth and comfort. The 12 guiding principles of infrastructure ecology will provide a set of goals for urban planners, engineers and other decision-makers in an urban system for urban (re)development.
- Parametric Modeling Approach for Economic and Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Medium-Duty Trucks
In: Journal of Cleaner Production [Peer Reviewed]
Date: January 2017
Using a parametric modeling approach, we evaluate economic and environmental life cycle trade-offs of medium-duty electric trucks in comparison with nine non-electric technologies.
In terms of cost, whether total cost of ownership or also including health and climate impact costs, model year 2015 battery electric trucks in severe applications such as urban driving provide positive and robust net benefits in many areas of the U.S. However, for typical operations, petroleum diesel with idle reduction or hybrid-electric technology provide the largest overall life cycle cost benefit.
Battery electric, idle reduction, and hybrid trucks emit lower life cycle greenhouse gas emissions across the board in comparison with the other technologies. Despite lower carbon-intensity, electric trucks tend to be water-intensive because of cooling water consumption for thermo-electric power plants.
- Water, air emissions, and cost impacts of air-cooled microturbines for combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems: A case study of in the Atlanta region
In: Engineering [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2016
The increasing pace of urbanization means that cities and global organizations are looking for ways to increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP) systems have the potential to improve the energy generation efficiency of a city or urban region by providing energy for heating, cooling, and electricity simultaneously. The purpose of this study is to estimate the water consumption for energy generation use, carbon dioxide (CO2) and NOx emissions, and economic impact of implementing CCHP systems for five generic building types within the Atlanta metropolitan region, under various operational scenarios following the building thermal (heating and cooling) demands. Operating the CCHP system to follow the hourly thermal demand reduces CO2 emissions for most building types both with and without net metering. The system can be economically beneficial for all building types depending on the price of natural gas, the implementation of net metering, and the cost structure assumed for the CCHP system. The greatest reduction in water consumption for energy production and NOx emissions occurs when there is net metering and when the system is operated to meet the maximum yearly thermal demand, although this scenario also results in an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and, in some cases, cost. CCHP systems are more economical for medium office, large office, and multifamily residential buildings.
- Can developing countries leapfrog the centralized electrification paradigm?
In: Energy for Sustainable Development [Peer Reviewed]
Date: April 2016
Due to the rapidly decreasing costs of small renewable electricity generation systems, centralized power systems are no longer a necessary condition of universal access to modern energy services. Developing countries, where centralized electricity infrastructures are less developed, may be able to adopt these new technologies more quickly. We first review the costs of grid extension and distributed solar home systems (SHSs) as reported by a number of different studies. We then present a general analytic framework for analyzing the choice between extending the grid and implementing distributed solar home systems. Drawing upon reported grid expansion cost data for three specific regions, we demonstrate this framework by determining the electricity consumption levels at which the costs of provision through centralized and decentralized approaches are equivalent in these regions. We then calculate SHS capital costs that are necessary for these technologies provide each of five tiers of energy access, as defined by the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All initiative. Our results suggest that solar home systems can play an important role in achieving universal access to basic energy services. The extent of this role depends on three primary factors: SHS costs, grid expansion costs, and centralized generation costs. Given current technology costs, centralized systems will still be required to enable higher levels of consumption; however, cost reduction trends have the potential to disrupt this paradigm. By looking ahead rather than replicating older infrastructure styles, developing countries can leapfrog to a more distributed electricity service model.
- Carbon emission permit price volatility reduction through financial options
In: Energy Economics [Peer Reviewed]
Date: January 2016
We develop a stylized model to investigate the impact of financial options on reducing carbon permit price volatility under a cap-and-trade system. The existence of an option market provides a mechanism to hedge the uncertainty of future spot prices and is a stimulus for investment in carbon emission abatement technologies. We show that both the spot price level and the price volatility of carbon permits can be reduced via the trading of financial options, while achieving the emission reduction target. We also show that introducing financial op- tions in a banking environment offers more flexibility to risk management in carbon permit trading.
- The Water Efficiency Gap
In: Sustainable Water Resources Management [Peer Reviewed]
Date: December 2015
Water managers throughout the world are increasingly challenged to provide reliable and affordable water supplies to growing human populations, under conditions of climate variability and competing demands. At the same time, there is growing recognition of the interconnections between water and energy use (the water-energy nexus), and calls for integrating water and energy policy. If any regulatory integration is to occur, it is important to understand the dynamics of water management and how it compares to the management of the energy system. Furthermore, lessons learned from the energy sector may transfer to the water sector. The concept of the energy efficiency gap has been used to understand the market and non-market barriers that create and sustain an inefficient energy system. We explore to what degree the understandings of the energy efficiency gap can be applied to water management to produce efficiency gains. Water systems typically fall far short of operating at economically and technically achievable levels of efficiency. We find that in many sectors of the economy, these failures are determined more by political institutions than by markets. To illustrate, even in times of scarcity, water management agencies typically do not raise prices. In contrast, most American energy resources are privately owned, and the market provides greater incentive for owners to consider scarcity in their decisions (Olmstead 2010). We argue that while there are substantial differences in the markets for energy and for water, there are many barriers to achieving efficiency that are common to water and energy. Parallel opportunities for reducing the water efficiency gap include improved data reporting, improved metering, revised rate structures, improved information and management strategies, residential rebate programs, public–private partnerships for irrigation efficiency, benchmarks for thermoelectric cooling, and product efficiency standards.
- New Approach for Optimal Electricity Planning and Dispatching with Hourly Time-Scale Air Quality and Health Considerations
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences [Peer Reviewed]
Date: September 2015
Integrating accurate air quality modeling with decision making is hampered by complex atmospheric physics and chemistry and its coupling with atmospheric transport. Existing approaches to model the physics and chemistry accurately lead to significant computational burdens in computing the response of atmospheric concentrations to changes in emissions profiles. By integrating a reduced form of a fully coupled atmospheric model within a unit commitment optimization model, we allow, for the first time to our knowledge, a fully dynamical approach toward electricity planning that accurately and rapidly minimizes both cost and health impacts. The reduced-form model captures the response of spatially resolved air pollutant concentrations to changes in electricity-generating plant emissions on an hourly basis with accuracy comparable to a comprehensive air quality model. The integrated model allows for the inclusion of human health impacts into cost-based decisions for power plant operation. We use the new capa- bility in a case study of the state of Georgia over the years of 2004– 2011, and show that a shift in utilization among existing power plants during selected hourly periods could have provided a health cost sav- ings of $175.9 million dollars for an additional electricity generation cost of $83.6 million in 2007 US dollars (USD2007). The case study illustrates how air pollutant health impacts can be cost-effectively minimized by intelligently modulating power plant operations over multihour pe- riods, without implementing additional emissions control technologies.
- Adaptive Stochastic Integrated Assessment Modeling of Optimal Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions
In: Climatic Change [Peer Reviewed]
Date: January 2015
We develop a method for finding optimal greenhouse gas reduction rates under ongoing uncertainty and re-evaluation of climate parameters over future decades. Uncertainty about climate change includes both overall climate sensitivity and the risk of extreme tipping point events. We incorporate both types of uncertainty into a stochastic model of climate and the economy that has the objective of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions at lowest overall cost over time. Solving this problem is computationally challenging; we introduce a two-step-ahead approximate dynamic programming algorithm to solve the finite time horizon stochastic problem. The uncertainty in climate sensitivity may narrow in the future as the behavior of the climate continues to be observed and as climate science progresses. To incorporate this future knowledge, we use a Bayesian framework to update the two correlated uncertainties over time. The method is illustrated with the DICE integrated assessment model, adding in current estimates of climate sensitivity uncertainty and tipping point risk with an endogenous updating of climate sensitivity based on the occurrence of tipping point events; the method could also be applied to other integrated assessment models with different characterizations of uncertainties and risks.
Chapters
- Biofuel Lifecycle Energy and Environmental Impacts: The Challenges of Co-Product Allocation
In: Handbook of Bioenergy
Date: 2015
- Industrial Ecology: Quantitative Methods for Exploring a Lower Carbon Future
In: Physics of Sustainable Energy III [Peer Reviewed]
Date: 2015
- Efficient Use of Materials and Energy
In: Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management
Date: June 2010
- Emissions and Exposure to Metals: Cadmium and Lead
In: Industrial Ecology and Global Change
Date: 1994
- Industrial Ecology in the Manufacturing of Consumer Products
In: Industrial Ecology and Global Change
Date: 1994
- Soil as a Vulnerable Environmental System
In: Industrial Ecology and Global Change
Date: 1994
- Nuclear Warhead Detection: The Black Sea Experiment
In: Verification Report 1991
Date: 1991
- Reducing Tactical Nuclear Weapons
In: Science and International Security
Date: 1990
- Verification of Limits on Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles
In: Reversing the Arms Race: How to Achieve and Verify Deep Reductions in the Nuclear Arsenals
Date: 1990
- Verification of Limitations on Land-Based Missiles
In: The Future of Land-Based Strategic Missiles
Date: 1989
- Verification of Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles
In: Verification of Arms Reductions: Nuclear, Chemical and Conventional
Date: 1989
Conferences
- Bioenergy efficiency evaluation for sustainable optimization in sub-Saharan Africa
In: Proceedings of the 2nd African International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management
Date: December 2020
- Electricity Infrastructure Planning with Uncertain Demand Using Stochastic Optimization
In: Proceedings of the 2019 IISE Annual Conference
Date: July 2019
- Why Voluntary Time-of-Use Tariffs Struggle to Penetrate the Residential Electricity Sector
In: Production and Operations Management Society (POMS) Conference
Date: May 2019
- Analyzing Wind Location Options for the Southwest Power Pool
In: Proceedings of the 2015 Industrial and Systems Engineering. Research Conference
Date: 2015
- Role of Artificial Roughness in Solar Air Heaters
In: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology
Date: 2015
- Increasing the Likelihood of Large-Scale Grid-Enabled Vehicle (GEV) Penetration through Appropriate Design Choices
In: 2011 Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference
Date: September 2011
- Design and Testing of a Tidal Current Power Extraction Device
In: Second International Symposium on Marine Propulsors
Date: June 2011
- An Alternative Mechanism for Carbon Emission Permit Price Volatility Mitigation
In: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition
Date: 2010
- Estimates of the Cost of New Electricity Generation in the South
In: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition
Date: 2010
- Lowest Cost Path to Meeting Electricity Demand at the State Level: Implications of Carbon Cap-and-Trade
In: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition
Date: 2010
- Appliance Energy Use in America’s Second Home – The Automobile
In: ACEEE 2008 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings
Date: 2008
Working Papers
- The Economics of Four Virginia Biomass Plants
Date: April 2018
Global electricity generated from biomass more than tripled between 2000 and 2016, and it is forecast to grow at an increasing pace through 2050. Electricity generation from biomass is also expanding in the United States, particularly in the Southeast. Given the continued growth and policy support for biomass electricity generation, this paper assesses the economics of four Virginia biomass plants, three converted from coal plants in 2012 and one purchased and expanded in 2004. The goal is to estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) generated from the plants as a metric of their level of competitiveness with respect to alternative ways of meeting electricity demand in the region. The LCOE of the four plants range from $93 to $143/MWh, about 40-53% more expensive than new solar and wind today and is double the cost of energy efficiency. Even with the inclusion of federal subsidies and environmental credits, Dominion’s biomass conversions are not competitive. Overall, our analysis underscores the risks associated with investing in large, long-lived generation assets at a time when technologies and markets are rapidly evolving.
- The Economics of Four Virginia Biomass Plants
Date: March 2018
Global electricity generated from biomass more than tripled between 2000 and 2016, and it is forecast to grow at an increasing pace through the year 2040. Electricity generation from biomass is also expanding in the United States, particularly in the Southeast. Given the continued growth and policy support for biomass electricity generation, this paper assesses the economics of four Virginia biomass plants, three converted from coal plants in 2012 and one purchased and expanded in 2004. The goal is to estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) generated from the plants as a metric of their level of competitiveness with respect to alternative ways of meeting electricity demand in the region. The LCOE of the four plants range from $93 to $143/MWh, about 40-53% more expensive than new solar and wind today. Even with the inclusion of federal subsidies and environmental credits, Dominion’s biomass conversions are not competitive with several other established sources of electricity and affordable energy-efficiency options. Overall, our analysis underscores the risks associated with investing in large, long-lived generation assets at a time when technologies and markets are rapidly evolving.
Other Publications
- Data for: Local Manufacturing for Sustainable Development: Decision Support for Small Enterprises
Date: 2019
- Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Advanced Jet Propulsion Fuels: Fischer-Tropsch Based SPK-1 Case Study
Date: September 2011
- Framework and Guidance for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Footprints of Aviation Fuels
Date: April 2009